BTRTN: The Midterms, Part II...Can The Dems Hold the Senate?
Born To Run The Numbers is back with Part II of its first look at the 2022 mid-terms, focusing on whether the Democrats can retain control of the Senate. BTRTN takes a line-by-line look at each race, then drills down to the 10 that really matter.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/03/btrtn-midterms-part-iican-dems-hold.html
Excerpts: "Before we review the Senate, you might be interested in our credentials as election forecasters. Below is our track record in Senate races over the last dozen years. Over this period we have only missed 15 senate races out of almost 250 predictions...To give an indication, in November, 2020, we predicted that both Georgia Senate races would go to runoff, and in January, 2021, we predicted that Democrats would win both of those runoff elections. Not many of our fellow forecasters went four-for-four on Georgia in those momentous elections...
"The Democrats have a far better chance of holding onto the Senate than the House. The Democrats simply need to protect their 14 seats up for reelection to hold the Senate, and only four of those 14 races will be competitive. The GOP not only has to flip a seat, they have to hold all of their 50 seats. Six GOP seats will potentially be competitive races, and in three of them, the GOP incumbent is retiring, making the seat more vulnerable.
"At this juncture, the odds marginally favor the Democrats, and the defining and deciding race may very well be in the state that has been and continues to be the crucible of voting rights controversy, Georgia. The outcome in that race could take days, weeks or even months to sort out, and will almost certainly be yet another test of our democracy. Here is how we peg the outcomes at this very early juncture..."
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