Is Ukraine on the Edge of Defeat?

[Zorro]

For years I’ve been corresponding with TPM Reader BF. He’s in the national security world, whereas I’m just an outside observer. He’s prone to intense responses to events whereas I’m characterologically more cautious. But this is his field not mine. So in recent days I was struck to see that he thinks I have the Ukraine situation totally wrong and that notwithstanding its battlefield embarrassments and mishaps Putin is on the verge of getting everything he wants and Ukraine is on the verge of what amounts to surrender.

I would start by saying that I don’t see these as my opinions. I think I’m largely following the analyses of people who seem to have the best handle on the situation. But as I told BF in our correspondence I had great difficulty squaring his take with what I was seeing unfold. I bring this up because I wanted to share his take on the situation and share my reply and reaction with you since perhaps others have similar thoughts …

I think you’re missing the key dynamic. Zelensky is negotiating a surrender that will allow Russia to keep Donbas and recognize the seizure of Crimea, while also renouncing any moves toward NATO membership. This is basically a complete capitulation to all Russian demands. Russian troops are pulling back because they’ve won the war despite their horrible operational performance. Zelensky’s public offer is already a complete acceptance of basically all pre-war Russian demands. He’ll likely have to sweeten the pot somehow, meaning that Russia will likely end up with more than they were even asking for pre-war.

And then …

Much of the coverage of the war is treating it like WW2, following the advance and retreat of forces as if that were the decisive factor. It isn’t. People need to think through the logic of war termination. The conflict won’t end when the Russians plant their flag on the presidential residence in Kyiv. It’ll end when the Ukrainians decide the costs in terms of human suffering become too high. And they’ve reached that point, more or less, especially given the lack of serious support from the US/NATO. Zelensky’s opening offer in the current negotiations is basically accepting the core Russian demands. That’s a simple empirical fact. Just compare his position in the negotiations to Russian demands: No NATO membership, check. No foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, check. Accept Russian dominance and possible secession of Donbas following a “referendum,” check. Recognize Russian claims to Crimea, that’s the one thing not made clear. And what is the Russian concession for all of this? Reparations? No. Just an empty “security guarantee” that literally adds nothing to the Budapest Memorandum.

We certainly agree that the issue is not military performance but the basis on which the conflict is concluded. I think Russia has set itself back pretty substantially in many parts of the world since it’s military now looks much less capable than people thought. See recent events in Central Asia and the Caucasus. But for this conflict that’s not the main thing.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-ukraine-on-the-edge-of-defeat/sharetoken/bnRhtfRL5wDe

[relayerbob]

1. I call BS on BF

Whoever that is

[Igel]

2. They're always on the edge of defeat.

That's the problem.

A few days ago there was a loud yelp issued in the form of "American weapon aren't getting to us as fast as they need to."

Take away the assist in the form of lethal weapons, and the Ukr army will collapse.

As it is, the "security aid" is defensive and ill-suited for mounting an offense. Because that might annoy the Grande Putain.

There are ways to finesse a retreat by the Rascists given just defensive aid, but that won't affect much of the occupied territory. For that they need *offensive* weapons.

Note that "security aid" is a weasel word. In 2015 and 2016 a lot of "security aid" went to Ukraine. Blankets and medicines, humvees and radar-detection devices. Unless a Ukr soldier smothered an invader with a blanket, none was lethal. Things are better--2017 happened and lethal aid finally flowed to Ukraine, Russian tanks pulled back from the line of contact and fewer Ukrainians were killed ... That's a grand and glorious thing.

Sanctions don't deter? Fine. We can rewrite the past.

But sanctions also don't force retreats. That's the still-standing claim, and that was disproven, in giant glowing letters, 2015-2022. Russians have grown accustomed to xenophobia excusing all their government's crimes. In an information bubble, that's even *more* heinous. Punish them for this and there's a good chance that the level of hatred for the West will increase, and to yield even a single step would be seen as total capitulation to the evil Western enemy.

Most have no idea the level of betrayal and bitterness felt in the 1990s by many older Russians when the Comecon countries bailed on the USSR, and even effaced the Stalin-imposed memorials to their love and fealty to the USSR's Red Army for liberating them.

[Make7]

3. But what does Russia need to do to lift the economic sanctions?

That isn't being implemented by Ukraine, so the rest of the world can just keep the sanctions in place until Russia recognizes Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and their 1994 borders.

[Beastly Boy]

4. A bigger and far more consequential question is, is Russia on the edge of defeat?

No matter how badly Ukraine may lose out in this war (and at this point it's hard to even assume they will suffer a military defeat), they have already laid the foundation for Russia's demise on the global stage. The short-term consequences of Putin's blunder are already evident.. The mighty Russian army is mighty no more. NATO is stronger and more united than ever, and it already includes a couple of former Soviet republics: Russia will never again be able to legitimately claim any connection to them. Sweden and Finland are more likely to join NATO than ever. Long term, the partition between East and West is now clearly drawn, with Ukraine being clearly part of the West and Russia just as clearly ending up east of this partition. This is a huge blow to the entire Russian self-image: they always fancied themselves to be an integral part of Western civilization. No more. It is now Russia and China in the East, with Russia being an increasingly junior partner in this relationship. Meanwhile Ukraine, no matter what concessions it must make at the end of the war, remains more European than ever, with all the economic and cultural benefits of this union that Russia will never again fully enjoy.

Russia already lost a great deal more than the potential concessions they may get from Ukraine. Ukraine losses, if any, remain to be seen.

[lagomorph777]

7. Yes - Russia has damaged its military and economic power very substantially.

Many of its slave states and allies are surely re-evaluating their options.

Russia's position is weakening.

Now is the time for us to exploit the opening.

Dump as many weapons as possible into Ukraine. Especially weapons that Ukraine can fire across the border at major Russian bases.

[Vogon_Glory]

5. I'm not so sure that the Ukrainians are losing

I don’t know about the eastern part of Ukraine, but it looks like the Russians are being hollowed out around Kyiv and south of Kharkov (Sorry, old name). The Russian drive towards Odessa is also stalling.

The Russians are losing a lot of experienced troops and their newer toys while the Ukrainians are getting more and more newer, nastier stuff.

Team Bear does not seem to be winning.

[lagomorph777]

8. Yeah, the OP looks like Russian propaganda to me.

Not very realistic.

[Vogon_Glory]

9. When it comes to the military situation in the Ukraine, I try to balance what info I get

From Progressive web sites with info from at least one war-gamers’ web site. The latter aren’t chock full of political torch-carriers like us and have more people from different backgrounds who know stuff about tactics and military equipment. If the latter say that the Rooskis are losing, I’m more inclined to believe them than former RT USA “journalists” or Roopty-doop hacks from Faux Noise propaganda.

[lees1975]

6. No indication is present that Zelenskyy is giving up the Donbas or Crimea

that sounds like Russian reporting and propaganda. According to Zelenskyy in his appearances to EU, NATO and the US, the territories are not up for negotiation.