Putin's key supporters are now playing a desperate face-saving game in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going according to plan. The sinking of the Moskva – the flagship of the Black Sea fleet – is the latest major military setback. In the course of almost two months, Russia has lost six major generals and between 15,000-20,000 troops, all the while failing to secure any appreciable gains.
Reports of low morale and defection, coupled with sightings of mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin, hint at recruitment problems. This, along with Russia’s apparent inability to replenish lost military equipment – a consequence of western sanctions – has led some observers to wonder whether the Russian war machine is running out of road.
Despite this, there are few indications that Russia is considering cutting its losses. By all accounts, ceasefire negotiations have reached a dead end, with Russia refusing to compromise on any of its initial positions. After his recent face-to-face meeting with Putin, the Austrian chancellor, Karl Nehammer, said that Putin “believes he is winning the war”.
The Kremlin is suffering major setbacks, but will not alter its negotiating strategy. This isn’t mere bravado. Research on authoritarian regimes has shown that in many cases, the direction wars take is not solely determined by battlefield success or failure. Rather, major decisions – especially about when to end the war – are often dictated by the interests of the key political players within the country. Understanding the Kremlin’s decision-making, therefore, requires zeroing in on the key power dynamics within the regime.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-key-supporters-are-now-playing-a-desperate-face-saving-game-in-ukraine/ar-AAWpKZn
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