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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,010 posts)
Mon Aug 29, 2022, 12:38 PM Aug 2022

The polls are telling a new story about Democrats and the midterms

Two months ago, it seemed that the Democratic Party was headed for a historic rout in this year’s midterm elections — but now, that assessment is being upended.

National Democrats recently achieved a string of significant legislative victories, protecting abortion rights is proving to be a motivating issue for voters across the country and gas prices are steadily on the decline.

As the general election campaign begins to take shape, it’s also becoming clear that Republicans are suffering from a deleterious candidate quality issue in key Senate races — among them, Blake Masters in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and J.D. Vance in Ohio. These candidates’ extreme positions, lack of experience or personal vulnerabilities make them far more susceptible to defeat in a statewide race than a more mainstream Republican would be.

FiveThirtyEight’s predictor now gives Democrats a 64 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate — up from 50 percent just a few weeks ago. Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) even admitted that there is “a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate, citing these “candidate quality” issues on the Republican side.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-polls-are-telling-a-new-story-about-democrats-and-the-midterms/ar-AA11eulh

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The polls are telling a new story about Democrats and the midterms (Original Post) Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Aug 2022 OP
What about the House? KPN Aug 2022 #1
Same site says repugs 77 percent to Democratic Party 23 percent. jimfields33 Aug 2022 #2
Booooo! I think the House majority is in question, but I think those probabilities KPN Aug 2022 #7
You mean the 538 forecast that missed both 2018 and 2020 by more than 10%? lees1975 Aug 2022 #4
Yeah. The House is what is in question. I don't trust 538 KPN Aug 2022 #6
A week ago StrkSrviver Aug 2022 #3
++++ KPN Aug 2022 #5

KPN

(15,646 posts)
7. Booooo! I think the House majority is in question, but I think those probabilities
Mon Aug 29, 2022, 04:29 PM
Aug 2022

are significantly off and favor Rs more than they should.

lees1975

(3,859 posts)
4. You mean the 538 forecast that missed both 2018 and 2020 by more than 10%?
Mon Aug 29, 2022, 03:28 PM
Aug 2022

Those forecast models are based on long-term polling. The trend lines are moving the other way. 538 got behind in the data in 2018, and in 2020.

Look at it in a month and see how it's changed.

KPN

(15,646 posts)
6. Yeah. The House is what is in question. I don't trust 538
Mon Aug 29, 2022, 04:25 PM
Aug 2022

based on the last 2 elections. Their reputation is really built on 2016 more than anything else. So thanks for that. My sense in looking at 538 is their projections on the House are overly pessimistic regarding Ds.

 

StrkSrviver

(85 posts)
3. A week ago
Mon Aug 29, 2022, 03:18 PM
Aug 2022

It was 80% based on accumulated generic poll data from the last few months. For some reason they don't give more weight to the obvious trending polls that show a 7% advantage for our side. But they will

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