The polls are telling a new story about Democrats and the midterms
Two months ago, it seemed that the Democratic Party was headed for a historic rout in this years midterm elections but now, that assessment is being upended.
National Democrats recently achieved a string of significant legislative victories, protecting abortion rights is proving to be a motivating issue for voters across the country and gas prices are steadily on the decline.
As the general election campaign begins to take shape, its also becoming clear that Republicans are suffering from a deleterious candidate quality issue in key Senate races among them, Blake Masters in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and J.D. Vance in Ohio. These candidates extreme positions, lack of experience or personal vulnerabilities make them far more susceptible to defeat in a statewide race than a more mainstream Republican would be.
FiveThirtyEights predictor now gives Democrats a 64 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate up from 50 percent just a few weeks ago. Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) even admitted that there is a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate, citing these candidate quality issues on the Republican side.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-polls-are-telling-a-new-story-about-democrats-and-the-midterms/ar-AA11eulh
KPN
(15,646 posts)jimfields33
(15,808 posts)KPN
(15,646 posts)are significantly off and favor Rs more than they should.
lees1975
(3,859 posts)Those forecast models are based on long-term polling. The trend lines are moving the other way. 538 got behind in the data in 2018, and in 2020.
Look at it in a month and see how it's changed.
KPN
(15,646 posts)based on the last 2 elections. Their reputation is really built on 2016 more than anything else. So thanks for that. My sense in looking at 538 is their projections on the House are overly pessimistic regarding Ds.
StrkSrviver
(85 posts)It was 80% based on accumulated generic poll data from the last few months. For some reason they don't give more weight to the obvious trending polls that show a 7% advantage for our side. But they will