BTRTN: Is the Biden "Hot Streak" Making a Difference?

[reggieandlee]

Sure, Joe Biden and the Dems are on a winning streak. But Born To Run The Numbers takes a cold, hard, objective look at the numbers to assess whether it is the "sea change" the pundits crow about... or simply recovery of lost ground. Read BTRTN's August Month in Review here:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/09/btrtn-is-biden-hot-streak-making.html

Excerpts: "Last month we wondered if anyone – especially Democrats! -- had noticed that Joe Biden was actually putting together a very impressive record in his first 18 months on the job. Since then, there have (finally) been an absolute torrent of articles and newscasts feverishly itemizing the Biden 'hot streak.' The question is, is it making any difference? Is the winning streak moving the needle with respect to the Biden 'scorecard' and Democratic prospects in the midterms?
"But when you look closely at the data over time (below), two things become clear. The first is that the recent (August) improvement is merely an 'uptick,' hardly a 'sea change.' And the second is that that uptick is versus July – but not when compared to January, when everyone was sounding the death knell for the Democrats in the midterms. At best, some measures have returned only to January levels, while others are still short of even that...
"There is clearly a hop in the Democrat’s step now, and good reasons for it. But that is a long way from saying the midterms are now well in hand, or that a 'sea change' has occurred to justify all those recent headlines. There is still an opportunity to make that happen; the selling job has to be undertaken in earnest; the numbers simply need to rise much further..."

[yankee87]

1. Roe your vote

After the recent wins for Democrats in places they never won, Alaska!!!, the polls mean less and less. Of course, being a Democrat, I am always leery, but with the rogue SCOTUS and Traitor Trump, I believe we'll have a Blue tsunami in November.
My goodness, Qpublicans have pulled ads all over the country.

[lees1975]

2. Polling data can be skewed, "adjusted" and made to predict just about anything.

There always seems to be a "tightening" or a shift right before the election and I think that's because many of them use data from older patterns to make predictions based on the models they run.

There are two things I've observed in making phone calls to get voters to the polls. One is that the percentage of Democrats who will tell you they're planning to vote in this midterm is as high as it was prior to the Presidential election in 2020, which is a great sign for Democrats. Two is that voter registration numbers are up everywhere, and whatever gains the GOP had made last spring have been wiped out over the summer and fall, specifically since Dobbs. Even here in Illinois, there are a lot of signs Democratic turnout will be significantly higher than it was even in 2018.

Independent voters have seen the biggest shift, now most polls showing them +8 for Democrats, and in places like Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, where the nut case conspiracy theorists are on the ballot, it's even higher than that.