BTRTN House and Senate Midterms Snapshot: How Far Have the Democrats Really Come in the Last Month?
Born To Run the Numbers kicks off the post-Labor Day home stretch to Election Day with its latest House and Senate Forecasts. Yes, prospects are improving for the Democrats... but what are the numbers really saying?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/09/btrtn-house-and-senate-midterms.html
Excerpts: "The headlines these days are breathless, indeed. 'Dems Flip 2022 On Its Head'…'Election Forecasters Rethink Their Ratings'…'House Up For Grabs.' Between the SCOTUS Dobbs decision overturning Roe, Biden’s incredible, no-one-saw-it-coming hot streak, tumbling gas prices and Trump’s DocuGate fiasco, suddenly Democrats are downright jolly about November...
"The real headline is this: despite all of that Blue good news of late, the Senate and House race dynamics have only modestly changed in the last month...Our proprietary BTRTN models, which calculate the odds of the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate and the House, show some positive movement on both, but hardly a sea change...
"To illustrate how little has changed, let us bring back a chart we published last week, which uses a variety of political and economic measures to quantify the electoral environment. The data establishes that on measure after measure, Biden and the Democrats did make progress in August, but that progress...has been modest, more in terms of stopping the bleeding than a sharp rebound."
"The most important number on the chart above, in terms of the House, is the generic ballot. As we have said many times, it has been a remarkably accurate predictor of midterm outcomes. You can see that (again, following other measures), the Democrats have made progress in the generic ballot in the last few months, pulling even with the GOP at 44% to 44%, meaningfully better than the 45% to 42% advantage the GOP held in June. The Democrats are back, roughly, to where they were in January."