Putin couldn't imagine losing in Ukraine; now he must
By Leonid Bershidsky / Bloomberg Opinion
There were fireworks in Moscow as the Russian military retreated hastily from the key town of Izyum in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on Sept. 10. The Russian capital wasn’t actually celebrating the debacle: The display was part of its City Day festivities. But there could hardly be a better illustration of the Putin regime’s utter unpreparedness for defeat. Its attempt to prosecute a war of invasion while keeping up the appearance of life going on as usual was doomed from the start; and the choices it faces now are stark.
In a matter of days, Ukraine pushed the Russian troops out of the Kharkiv region. This may not look like a major victory in terms of territory regained; some 2,500 square kilometers, or a little more by now, out of the 125,000 square kilometers Russia held in Ukraine before this week. Yet Ukrainian and Western jubilation is justified.
The Kharkiv region has historically been ruthless to hubris. As Russian forces were routed there in the last few days, many commentators recalled the disastrous 1942 push by Marshal Semyon Timoshenko against a smaller German force in the area, which deftly moved to cut off Moscow’s forces off from the north. Some 250,000 Soviet troops were taken prisoner. The fiasco opened the path for Hitler’s armies to reach Stalingrad, where they were only stopped at an enormous cost in human lives.
The current Russian setback, too, is strategically significant. The loss of the Kharkiv positions turns the goal of encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region into a pipe dream: Russian troops can no longer press on from the north. The invading army retreated to avoid being blocked from supply lines and reinforcements. However, the Russians couldn’t avoid damage to their already low morale.
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