Election Results vs. Polls: How accurate were the polls in the 2022 elections?

[Stuckinthebush]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/election-results-midterms-polls-right.html

During the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, there was near-constant chatter about the possibility that the publicly available polls were flawed or just plain wrong. Polls are never perfectly accurate, of course. But there had been a lot of angst over the inability of the polling industry at large to predict Donald Trump’s 2016 win and stronger-than-expected 2020 performance. This led to a big debate over problems with getting voters (especially Trump voters) to respond to traditional phone-interview polling and the divergence of different pollsters using different methodologies. Polls were actually pretty exact in the last midterm election in 2018, but nobody had a clear handle on which precedent would be accurate.

While many races across the country have still yet to be called, it’s now clear that this year’s midterms told a complex story full of unexpected twists. So let’s take a very preliminary look at how the polls performed in some big 2022 races. We’ll use RealClearPolitics’s straight polling averages to capture multiple polls while occasionally pointing the finger at outliers.

Pennsylvania: John Fetterman vs. Mehmet Oz

What the Polls Said: The RCP averages had Mehmet Oz, the Republican, up by 0.4 percent at the end, making this one of the closest races in the country. John Fetterman, the Democrat, led during the earlier phases of the general-election campaign.

Who Actually Won: Fetterman leads by 3.4 percent with most of the votes counted. AP has called the race for Fetterman.

Georgia: Herschel Walker vs. Raphael Warnock

What the Polls Said: The final RCP averages showed Republican Herschel Walker leading by 1.4 percent. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock had led for most of the election cycle but was overtaken by Walker in the final weeks.

Who Actually Won: The two candidates are going to a December 6 runoff since neither won a majority, as required by Georgia election laws. With the final votes trickling in, Warnock actually leads by just under a point.

Arizona: Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters

What the Polls Said: Republican Blake Masters wound up with a 0.3 percent lead in the final RCP averages; he didn’t lead in a single public poll until right before the election.

Who Actually Won: With just over two-thirds of the vote counted, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Masters by five points (51-46).

More at link. Bottom line seems that in most races the RCP avg overvalued GOP candidates' odds.

[DestinyIsles]

1. If you take Republican push polls out

The polls were pretty accurate.

[Stuckinthebush]

6. It'll be interesting to see how RCP deals with this

Will they adjust by removing push polls or will they continue to use the same methodology?

[yankee87]

2. Polls mean nothing

Polling means nothing anymore. No one under 70 answers their phone when they don't know the number.

[dchill]

3. The answer is "not."

[LakeArenal]

4. I wish I could call out the ones who were snarky

When I said I trust no polls. Even the supposed “good” ones.

Polls are just opinions and everybody has one.

[gab13by13]

9. I am with you,

I did the same. I must have posted 50 times that polls are used for propaganda, 538 included.

[catbyte]

5. Many polls were way off for the Michigan gubenatorial race. Especially RCP which had Dixon

up by 1 over Whitmer, and was touting "a big upset."

Governor Whitmer won re-election by 11 points.

[Claustrum]

7. Mostly because RCP take them all and average them.

538 does more with their model which showed a much lesser effect from those right leaning polls. Anyhow, I think it's more fair to measure each pollster individually because the right leaning polls skewed the average.

[exboyfil]

8. You can wipe your butt on Trafalger polls

[IbogaProject]

10. RCP is now a propaganda outlet

They used to be an excellent aggregator with the added fire given to me from the aggravation of seeing Rightwing headlines. But over the last few elections they now show their bias so strongly their polling summary isn't correct but now propaganda.