Pre-empting the coming world war

[Celerity]

Despite Ukraine, Paul Mason writes, Europe is still not awake to the security threat it faces.

https://socialeurope.eu/pre-empting-the-coming-world-war



It must have been a shock in Britain to see a book entitled The Coming World War published in 1935. That after all was the year a ‘peace ballot’ took place, an informal referendum in which 11 million people—half the electorate—voted for peace, disarmament and active support for the League of Nations. The book was vague about where the war might begin. But it warned that whole cities would be razed by bombers, with uncontrollable outbreaks of mental illness, starvation and social breakdown as a result. Published by the Communist Party, the book was aimed squarely at the pacifist movement, an audience targeted so successfully as to require a second edition, in 1936. But within six months of its appearance its author, Tom Wintringham, was himself at war—in Spain, commanding the British battalion of the International Brigade. The pacifist moment was over. That’s how quickly the world can turn. Today, too, we seem to be sleepwalking towards a global conflict whose shape is becoming all too clear.

Systemic incompatibility

There are justified grounds for believing the Ukraine conflict may soon become ‘frozen’. Back-channel negotiations are said to be happening between the United States and Russia. Behind the extreme gestures—the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline and the nightly threats of nuclear war on Russian television—some western analysts believe the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is seeking to de-escalate and freeze the invasion at its current territorial limits. The contours of any future global conflict have however become sharper in 2022. The declaration on February 4th by Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping—20 days before the invasion began—was a formal assertion of systemic incompatibility. There is no longer a single, ‘rules-based’ order, said the two presidents, but a multipolar world in which universal definitions of democracy, freedom and human rights are dead. By implication we, the Chinese Communist Party and United Russia—state parties which do not allow of alternation—will decide what constitutes freedom and democracy.

If this were merely a ‘live and let live’ philosophy, the west might simply decouple its economies from China, wean itself off Russian gas and resign itself to the strategic paralysis of the United Nations Security Council. But the invasion of Ukraine, Chinese manoeuvres against Taiwan and the relentless propaganda against universal norms being waged by both powers inside western societies are signals that coexistence will be hard. Economic deglobalisation is under way, as each of the global trading blocs scrambles to secure raw materials and energy supplies. Russia has diverted its oil and gas supplies to China; the US is exploring long-term energy agreements with Britain and Germany. Meanwhile the US president, Joe Biden, has banned the export of semiconductor tools to China while pouring $52 billion into semiconductor manufacturing and research, with the express aim of overtaking China in this critical field.

Unsustainable models

But what’s really undermining the rules-based order is the long-term unsustainability of the socio-economic model each of the world’s major powers has chosen. The Russian oligarchic elite lives off economic rents from oil and gas—impossible in a future of net-zero carbon emissions. The Chinese ‘communist’ elite thrives on the super-exploitation of a giant factory workforce which cannot bargain because it has no rights. And the US plutocratic elite tops a financialised capitalism reliant on dollar dominance and repeated central-bank largesse: high inequality and structural racism have turned it into the most fragile of the G7 democracies. None of these models can endure long-term. They are pushing the national elites into confrontation with one another—even as they proclaim their desire for peace and co-operation. Which leaves us with a world system built around an American hegemony for which its electorate no longer has the stomach, a Russian elite which feels compelled to lash out in the direction of its near neighbours and a China straining to move from regional dominance to matching the US in global power.

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[PortTack]

1. JMHO but I disagree. The EU is quite woke to the threat they face

If you listen to Stolenberg, Von Der Leyden, Duda, the British prime minister or any of the Baltic states foreign ministers or presidents, the president of Moldova, the German prime minister..all on the same page. Increasing defense spending, building border walls along Belarussia, building up reservists. All agree that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield..and above all else, Ukraine must be given what it needs to win this war.

They know Russia wants to freeze the conflict and Ukraine is having none of it.

Here in the US even top ranking republicans are saying mccarthy and crew are out of order saying we will not support Ukraine.

As far as China goes, their economy is seriously in the tank. They know they cannot invade Taiwan probably for the next decade. They would have to have a much larger fleet of ships, especially aircraft carriers. US sanctions and support for Taiwan from us, Japan, Australia, South Korea would end their teetering economy. These are all facts, not my opinion

For a deeper dive into the above read George Friedman and Peter Zeihan geopolitical experts. For a military analysis CP Scott is good.

[Irish_Dem]

2. I agree with this article 100%. We ignore it at our own peril.

World power is shifting all around us.

The US is currently in a weakened position.

China/Russia/Saudi/Iran/NK are allies as they promote their autocracies.
By any means possible.