When Democracy Was On The Ballot In 2022, Voters Usually Chose It
Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, made denying the results of the 2020 election central to her campaign this year. And while she hasn’t yet conceded, she lost that race to Democrat Katie Hobbs. It was one of the most high-profile examples of a pattern we saw over and over again in the midterms: When election deniers ran for offices that have significant oversight over elections themselves, voters rejected them.
There was a lot of talk about democracy being on the ballot this midterm cycle, with hundreds of candidates who refused to accept the outcome of the last nationwide election. And while many of those candidates (particularly incumbents) won their races, when it came to those who would have a direct impact on how elections are run and votes counted, the trend was clear. Voters chose democracy.
While members of Congress obviously have a role to play — 147 Republicans voted not to certify some of the results of the 2020 election, and a handful of Democrats have done so in past cycles as well — state-level officials hold the most immediate authority over elections. In particular, secretaries of state serve as the chief election official in most states, and overseeing elections is a big part of their job. Voters recognize this and, when state-level candidates were adamant election deniers, they not only lost, they typically did worse than other state-level candidates.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Doug Mastriano lost the governor’s race by more than 14 percentage points to Democrat Josh Shapiro. The governor of the Keystone State appoints its chief election official, so this is a role with an even more direct impact on elections than in other states. Mastriano was one of the most hardline election deniers running for office this year, and even attended the rally on Jan. 6, 2021, which later turned into the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Comparatively, Mehmet Oz, the Republican who ran for Senate in Pennsylvania, lost by less than 5 points. Oz not only ran for a position that would less directly impact elections in the state, but he also didn’t make the 2020 election central to his campaign — he never said it was stolen from Trump, though he did question the results at times.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rogers-democracy-on-ballot-1129/