Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia

[Emrys]

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2024, 02:18 AM - Edit history (3)

Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations

THE WAR between Russia and Ukraine has been catastrophic for both countries. With neither side enjoying an overwhelming advantage and their political positions completely at odds, the fighting is unlikely to end soon. One thing is clear, though: the conflict is a post-cold-war watershed that will have a profound, lasting global impact.

Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia

Feng Judun is Vice Dean of the Institute of International Studies and Director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai..

On a cheerful note that goes against the tide of current opinion in the West, his conclusions are that Russia will be forced to withdraw from all its occupied Ukrainian territories, and its threats to use nuclear weapons will come to nothing. He also says: "The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events." He foresees positive prospects for Ukraine when the war ends, including accession to the EU and NATO membership, and negative ones for Russia as it risks losing its former associated republics and the EU has grown more unified and many countries no longer have any illusions about Russia's attitudes, conduct, intent and the poor state of its armed forces.

[Emrys]

1. It's interesting to see that Feng Yujun is not the only Chinese expert who thinks Russia's prospects are poor,

and has presumably been given official sanction by the Chinese government to go public with his views:

Link to tweet

Dan Chirica
@danchirica

Gao Yusheng, former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine: the trend of the Russo-Ukrainian war and its impact on the international order

Recently, the China International Finance 30 Forum and the Faculty of International Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences hosted an internal video seminar to discuss what major changes the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has brought to the global financial landscape.

What will be the impact on China? How should China respond? Mr. Gao Yusheng, former ambassador of the People's Republic of China to Ukraine, spoke at the seminar, and the following is the content of his speech, which has been revised by himself.

The Russo-Ukrainian war was the most important international event after the cold war, ending the post-cold war period and opening up a new international order. spoke at the seminar, and the following is the content of his speech, which has been revised by himself.

The Russo-Ukrainian war was the most important international event after the cold war, ending the post-cold war period and opening up a new international order.

Gao Yusheng's article was published in Chinese on ifeng.com, and is archived here: https://archive.ph/5yeZp

If you click through the tweet, you can read the whole text in English.

[Irish_Dem]

2. Remarkable articles on a number of levels.

The fact that officials of the Chinese government are publishing this information is unheard of.
They must have permission from Xi to write them.

As I have been saying for some time and now we have confirmation,
China must be furious with Putin for the total debacle that is the Ukraine invasion.

It damages Chinas prospects taking control of the Pacific, has strengthened the Asian-US alliance,
Japan and other countries are beefing up their military.

In addition the financial sanctions are hurting China now too. Which China can ill afford given their tanking economy.

These articles tell us how truly pissed off China is at Russia.

[FakeNoose]

4. China doesn't see much value in an alliance with Russia(Putin)

Perhaps they're hoping Putin will be overthrown and replaced?

It could happen, but if it does, it won't happen by democratic means.

[Irish_Dem]

5. The China Russia alliance was extremely important to China.

The plan was (still is?) that together they would be the 21st century global superpowers.
Putin in control of Europe an the West, China the Pacific.

The plans were in place. Putin takes Ukraine, China takes Taiwan.

Putin screwed it all up.

China still intends to take the Pacific. It has to do so.
To be a superpower, you first must obtain regional control.

[Emrys]

6. Remarkable indeed. I should point out that Gao's article is no longer available at its original site of publishing,

hence the archive link - the link to the original article returns a 404 error. It was also first published in May 2022, but I don't think anything in the longer-term view has improved for Russia since then, apart from losing quite a bit of Ukrainian territory and gaining back a little, both at great cost.

We can only guess why that deletion happened - it's not uncommon for articles that run contrary to the Chinese government line to be disappeared, at least for domestic Chinese audiences, but then that raises the questions of why and how was it published in the first place.

Perhaps it could be evidence of Chinese governmental uncertainty about how to respond to Russia's ill-begotten adventure. Whatever, it's not a ringing endorsement.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Yes good guesses.

It did not please the Chinese government.
It was foolhardy of the man to post it.

Or as you suggest, could it have been a deliberate leak to send a message of some sort.

I said shortly after the Russian invasion disaster, the Chinese had to be furious.
Putin had assured them it would be a three day operation, a slam dunk.
Using the same plan the Chinese have in place to invade Taiwan.

It was a huge blow to the plans of become world powers.

Then the sanctions frightened China a great deal.
They can ill afford money problems given their tanking economy.

And now of course, a NATO like structure is forming in the Pacific.

If you listen carefully you can hear the cussing in Beijing.

[Passages]

3. Ukraine must prevail.