'Iran: It's Hard to Know How To Exit When You Don't Know Why You're There'
(TPM) "In discussions of modern wars Americans obsess about 'exit strategies.' How do you avoid getting 'bogged down'? How do you know when the mission is finished? How do you avoid 'mission creep'? These are very much Great Power questions. They’re all questions you ask about what are fundamentally wars of choice. They’re framed as questions of duration and sustainability, questions a Great Power asks when there are likely multiple draws on blood or treasure in various parts of the world, fears of over-extension and over-commitment. Other countries don’t have the luxury of these kinds of questions; it’s built into the Great Power equation. Ukraine has no 'exit strategy.' They’re being invaded. They’re fighting to control their own territory and sovereignty. In a way, at least if you place yourself in the world of Greater Russian nationalism where Vladimir Putin and his entourage live, Russia doesn’t have one either. They’re trying to reclaim 'their' territory or something between a national and imperial possession. They’ll fight until they get it."
"But talk of 'exit strategies' is really a way of asking what the goals are that led you to start a war in the first place. If the goal of your military action is clear, your exit strategies should be straightforward. Indeed, you shouldn’t need a ‘strategy’ at all. When your goals or met you’re done and you leave. Or at least you stop using military force. If you know what your goal is you fight until you’ve a) achieved your goal or b) realized through battlefield reverses that your goal is unattainable. If your goal is unclear all the inherent forward momentum of superior military force drives you forward."
"There are few modern wars where the US has launched an all out war, which this certainly is, with so little clarity about what it is we are even trying to accomplish. The Iraq War of 2003 is certainly a pretty good example of that. But what we were trying to achieve in Iraq was pretty clear: we wanted to topple the government of Saddam Hussein and replace it with another one. When the moment of invasion came in March 2003 really no one had any question that this was the only outcome the United States would accept. Just why that was so important was much, much fuzzier and what kind of government we’d put in its place even more so. But the immediate goal of the war was clear: there was no way the US would allow Saddam Hussein to remain in power."
"How about here? We’re demanding now 'unconditional surrender.' That appears to be our current war aim. But we’ve also said it’s eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, degrading its missile armory, creating an opening for a domestic opposition to take power, reacting to an imminent threat. Most notably, the US doesn’t appear to be deploying the kind of force that has much chance of achieving this goal."
Continued at link:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/iran-its-hard-to-know-how-exit-when-you-dont-know-why-youre-there
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