Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies -Yaroslav Trofimov
(In my opinion, Yaroslav Trofimov is the best foreign analyst)
President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. But stopping the fighting carries big risks, even if Iran lets him. If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war.
But leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of America’s partners and allies, and possibly make another, more devastating, regional war likely.
Sensing impatience in Washington, Iranian officials say they will fight on, until an agreement is reached on Iran’s terms, including America paying reparations to Tehran. “We must strike the aggressor in the mouth so it learns a lesson and never again thinks of launching an aggression against our dear Iran,” Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday in a social-media post.
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An additional twist is that Iran is letting its friends, including China, take oil out of the Gulf, while preventing everyone else. Now that Tehran has demonstrated the capacity—and global implications—of choking off the Hormuz strait, it has created significant geopolitical leverage for itself, and an incentive for Gulf states to appease it in the future. Reopening the strait, military analysts say, may require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline. That would mark an open-ended escalation, potentially leading to much higher American casualties.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de?st=XAyGJ2&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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