Op-Ed Economists set the record straight on millionaire tax migration in New York
By amNewYork Posted on May 26, 2026
For many weeks, a high profile debate over the economic impacts of millionaire tax migration on New York has played out in the realm of public opinion: When legislators propose tax increases for high-income earners and profitable corporations, pundits and politicians sound the alarm that New York City’s wealthy will leave. Debate on this issue reached a fever pitch with the election of Zohran Mamdani to the mayor’s office. Without raising taxes, policies that would substantially improve the lives of working- and middle-class families—universal childcare, free buses, and two hundred thousand units of new affordable housing construction—will be jeopardized. The fate of such programs turns on the question of how New York’s taxes shape the City and State economy.
The case of high-earner tax migration poses the following economic questions: Will increased tax burdens cause high earners to leave New York City or New York State? If so, will they move in such high numbers as to decrease tax revenues? If not, are there other negative economic consequences for increasing top tax rates and potentially losing some number of high earners?
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Similarly, Henrik Kleven published a working paper last year about potential downstream effects of increased taxation rates, accounting for positive results including decreased rent-seeking from employers and negative impacts such as reduced “trickle down” expenditures. The preliminary application of Kleven’s model found that the US would likely benefit from substantial increases in its top tax rate before externalities would begin to wipe out overall economic benefits.
Building on this academic literature, the Fiscal Policy Institute has published extensive research on the nature of outmigration in New York City. They found that the top 1 percent of earners are the least likely to move out of New York City, compared to the top 95–99 percent and bottom 95 percent income brackets.
https://www.amny.com/opinion/economists-on-millionaire-tax-migration-new-york/
This is about a week old which is why I noted the date but I saw that this was shared by Zohran Mamdani recently. I always felt it was a myth that the rich would leave the state or country after a moderate tax increase. California also has a ballot measure which is a moderate tax increase on the rich to address the cuts to health care & hospitals from Trump's tax cut bill and opponents are fear mongering that the wealthy will leave California. I think most will stay & pay the tax.