NRG Energy chief says gas is killing off coal and nuclear; next up: electric grid won't be needed.

[bananas]

David Crane is CEO of NRG and makes some interesting predictions:

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/03/21/natural-gas-killing-coal-and-nuclear-and-maybe-the-grid/?mod=yahoo_hs

Natural Gas: Killing Coal And Nuclear, and Maybe The Grid

By Cassandra Sweet
March 21, 2013, 12:24 PM

<snip>

“Natural gas is in the process of wiping out the coal industry,” Mr. Crane says, speaking at the WSJ’s ECO:nomics conference in Santa Barbara. “It’s a big shock as power generator. It’s wiping out the nuclear industry quicker than we thought.”

<snip>

The rise of natural gas will eventually be upstaged by an even more radical change, Mr Crane says: in the future, Americans are likely to be able to generate their own electricity at their homes and businesses, and likely won’t have to rely on electric grids, which may be superseded by in-home, or on-site distributed generation technology.

Rooftop and other solar-power generators that produce electricity used where the facility is located is the future of solar, not large solar farms in the desert, Mr. Crane says. And someday, the natural gas industry is likely to invent in-home power generation technology that could reduce or eliminate the need for utility power.

“All the natural gas industry needs is a gizmo in your house to convert natural gas into electricity,” Mr. Crane says. It could be a fuel cell, it could be a micro gas turbine.

<snip>

Via http://www.nirs.org

[Benton D Struckcheon]

1. I actually did a little checking into this after Sandy,

when we had no power for four days. You can get a natural gas generator installed in your home, but as of right now using it for all of your electricity isn't feasible because

1 - You can't buy natural gas at the same bulk price the utility can, and
2 - You have to maintain that thing, you know. Lots of moving parts. Finally,
3 - It's not nearly as efficient as the utility's generators.

I doubt you'd ever be able to replace natural gas generation at a utility with in-home generation. The generators currently in existence would have to get a lot more efficient and a lot more reliable.
Fuel cells, I don't know. Maybe.
Solar, definitely. But you'll always need a utility to back you up. I don't see how you get around that, at least for now. It's actually becoming a problem, finding a balance between needing the utility and home generation via solar. In a few years it might be a big problem. We're going to need those utilities online for the foreseeable future.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. You're assuming that the need for a conventional generator

in which an engine makes parts rotate in order to produce electricity. There are much more efficient ways of converting natural gas (or methane or H2 or any number of similar gases or alcohol or gasoline) into electricity. The fuel cell is the best example right now.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

3. How far along is fuel cell technology, that's the question

Second question would be: is it cost-effective vs utility power?

[Cirque du So-What]

4. An example with which I have personal experience:

LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc.

●LG and R-R (Rolls Royce) are investing in the next phase of the business aimed at the development and testing of an integrated-system demonstrator, then transitioning to a commercial business with products and services
●A program of work has been planned which is aimed at designing, developing, and testing a prototype system in a “string-test”
●The “string-test” fuel cell power system will…
●be at a smaller scale than 1MW, but include a product architecture capable of „scaling‟ to ~1MW
●Gas in to Grid Power out

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.netl.doe.gov%2Fpublications%2Fproceedings%2F12%2Fseca%2Fpdf%2FTue%2520PM%2FGoettler.Agnew.LGFCS%25202012%2520SECA%2520Workshop.pdf&ei=vrxNUcLSGK_8yAGy0IDoAw&usg=AFQjCNHWImyUqWwL3D5Toxp9I6ec4QpgjA&sig2=6bXbjU0KL62x_h4_xuSzrw

Granted, 1 MW is comparatively small to the output of a conventional power plant, but it's one helluva start.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

5. Like, wow.

That's probably good info, but I don't understand most of it. In layman's terms, what's the goal for developing that in years? What is looking to be achieved in terms of things like increased efficiency, decreased CO2 emissions? Also, that looks like a utility based solution, correct?

[Cirque du So-What]

6. Commercial development is still about four years out

This fuel cell project is aimed at direct connection to a source of natural gas - likely from shale gas (fracking...I know, I know...). These systems are being developed for industrial, commercial, and utility use. Efficiency is being continually improved, and CO2 emissions are zero; the only byproduct is water vapor.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

7. How is CO2 @zero possible if ng is the fuel? N/T

[Cirque du So-What]

8. Steam reforming of CH4

In a two-stage process, methane is reformed into CO2 and H2. It's roughly 80% efficient at this point, and it's possible to separate the CO2 and inject it into an underground reservoir - although this is not typically done at this time.

[nebenaube]

9. yeah

but then you can't run your boiler off of the waste heat of electrical generation...

[Jackpine Radical]

10. Some fuel cell designs do capture "waste" heat, I believe.

[bananas]

12. Maybe they'll be integrated into furnaces and water heaters?

Water heaters might come with a fuel cell to generate electricity and hot water.
Forced-air furnaces might have a micro-turbine to generate electricity and hot air.
Right now, when there's a blackout, force-air furnaces don't work because the blower needs electricity.

Maybe we'll see steam heat again. When I was young, we had a boiler in the basement which provided both heat and hot water. Steam was piped through the house to radiators in each room. Those radiators also had a little adjustable valve on them which let you adjust a small amount of steam to release into the room. Modern forced air heaters tend to dry out the air.

[kristopher]

11. Informed answers to the speculative replies to excellent OP

Details on the general structure of the future energy system the OP is referencing can be found at the link below. Let me be clear that what is discussed is the future energy system; the individual components are largely here and now technologies. The material covers all sectors: transportation, industry, buildings, industry, and electricity.

ReInventing Fire
Rocky Mountain Institute

http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/ReinventingFire


Happy reading.