That was the problem, in fact intelligence reports indicate if a fair election would have been held anytime from 1954 to 1975, the Viet Cong would have won it (Thus all elections were "Fixed" it that it was impossible to vote for anyone but the official candidates and everyone had to vote, i.e it would be like voting in the US, if such voting was lived to which Republican you want to be president).
In fact as part of the 1954 Peace Treaty ending the First Vietnam war, it was agreed to hold an election on unification. North Vietnam always wanted to hold such an election, it was the Government in the South that refused to hold it for they knew the Viet Minch (the name used during the French Vietnam war of 1946 to 1954) would have won the election hands down.
Thus Nixon had a weak hand in Paris and ending up agreeing to what he had object to when LBJ started negotiations around 1967.
Worse the world situation had changed between 1967 and 1972. The US wanted as many Chinese troops along the Soviet Border, so that the Soviet Union had to worry about a Second Front if it ever attacked Europe. Prior to the mid 1960s China and the Soviet Union had been close, but that started to break up in 1959. By the late 1960s it was clear that the break up had lead to tensions on the border between the Soviet Union and China. This helped the US given these two countries were it most dangerous potential enemies at that time.
On the other hand US Troops in Vietnam forced China to send AA crews to North Vietnam (In a speech I heard, a ex POW mentioned he had been captured by such a Chinese AA battery during Vietnam) and to mass troops along the Vietnam and Laotian borders to be ready to off set an American invasion of Laos or North Vietnam. These were troops the US wanted in Manchuria not North Vietnam. The Chinese would not move them till the potential of a US invasion of North Vietnam was eliminated. That meant US troops out of Vietnam at any cost AND THE NORTH VIETNAMESE, CHINESE AND RUSSIANS ALL KNEW THIS.
Thus the North Vietnamese had a strong hand, while Nixon had a weak one. Worse, this was the result of the GOP attack on the Democratic Party not only for how the Vietnam war was being lost, but why Cuba and China itself had been "Lost" to the Communists. Thus for US Domestic Policy reasons Nixon could not abandon South Vietnam, through by 1970 that was clearly what was in the best interest of the US (Vietnam was NOT worth the cost in lives or money). In fact the reason South Vietnam fell in 1974 was that the US decided it was more cost effective to reinforce Israel after the Yom Kipper war then to send those supplies to Vietnam (Thus the famous comment the US lost Vietnam on the banks of the Suez Canal).
The Soviet Union by 1970 was at its height of Military might. In the 1980s the Red Army did a maneuver where it went the distance from Berlin to Lisbon in a week performing combat exercises. From that height the Russian Army had fallen, but we are discussing 1970 NOT 2013.
By 1970 it had become clear that the US had to protect not only its force in Europe but Europe's (and the US Army in Europe) fuel supply, which was by then the Middle East (in the 1950s it had been the US, but as US use of fuel increased, they was less and less surplus, then US oil production peaked in 1970 and went into a steady decline, thus by 1972 any fuel for the US Army in Europe would be middle east oil). Thus the US needed to secure the Middle East during any conflict in Europe. All the Russians needed to do is shut down the wells, Russia did not need Middle eastern Oil. It is easier to attack and destroy, then the defend, thus Russia did not have to commit as much forces to the Middle East to achieve it objectives in the Middle East, when compared to what the US had to commit to defend the area.
Thus Russian had achieved what the US most feared, the ability to fight two wars at the same time. Europe and the Middle East. The US needed to off set this huge Soviet military advantage was the Chinese army, but that was tied in with defending North Vietnam. In many ways the US Military wanted out of Vietnam for even "Victory" in Vietnam weakened US position world wide (If the Viet Cong were defeated, China would still have to keep troops near North Vietnam to help show support for North Vietnam, troops the US would preferred to be in Manchuria opposite the Soviet Army.
That was the world situation in 1970, the 1973 oil embargo had not yet occur, but it was around the corner and the fact the US had become dependent on Middle Eastern oil already existed. China and Russia did not like each other, but Russia had a largest and best land force in the World. US had the best fleet and the Air Forces by the time of Vietnam were about equal in capability (the USSR had more planes, the US had better planes but the differences more then off set each other AND the aims of both Air Forces would have been different in a Conventional war between the Soviet Union and the US and that difference also offset the differences in the Air Forces).
Just a comment that Nixon in Paris was facing a worse world wide situation when he talked to the Viet Cong in Paris then the US is facing now. The Red Army is a shadow of what it had been in the 1970s, China is much more powerful but now has a strong understanding with Russia (they are almost acting as one, for the first time since the 1950s). Europe is not only dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Russian Natural Gas. The world is different, not better or worse, but different.
On the other hand, the Taliban knows it has minimal worries about the US Fleet (Planes from US Carriers can reach Afghanistan, but needs in flight refueling to do so, thus a factor, but a minor factor) and Europe is getting tied of being in Afghanistan (and are slowly pulling out). Pakistan is unstable and if Pakistan goes under, the ability of the US to support its troops in Afghanistan disappears (Thus the US has to provide aid to Pakistan, even as Pakistan uses that aid against US interests). The US wants to shift its forces to off set China, that means cutting back spending in Afghanistan, thus the US is about the abandon Afghanistan, like it was willing to abandon Vietnam in the 1970s. The Taliban knows this and the real talk is not some sort of settlement, but how the Taliban can help the US abandon Afghanistan to them while appearing that we did not. The Taliban has won the war, the people of Afghanistan will vote for them to rule if given that choice. The people may prefer someone else, but they will accept the Taliban and peace as opposed to the US and war and right now that is the choice in front of the people of Afghanistan. The US knows this, the Taliban knows this, anyone who watched Afghanistan over the last ten years knows this. The US wants some sort of cover to show the world the US "Won", the Taliban may even give the US that, in exchange for a quick victory.
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