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Taming the Gigaton Gorilla: Using Syria Diplomacy to Help Avoid U.S.-Russia Nuclear War
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/baum20130919
Taming the Gigaton Gorilla: Using Syria Diplomacy to Help Avoid U.S.-Russia Nuclear War
Seth Baum
huffingtonpost.com
Posted: Sep 19, 2013
The Syrian civil war has already caused over 100,000 deaths. As tragic as this is, it is miniscule compared to the massive and potentially permanent global destruction that could come from the gigaton gorilla lurking in the background: nuclear war between the United States and Russia. While the U.S. and Russia find themselves on opposite sides in Syria, their diplomacy over Syria's chemical weapons could help build the trust and confidence needed to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
<snip>
The two countries still hold the overwhelming majority of the world's nuclear weapons: About 4,000 active weapons and 16,000 total, making for probably several gigatons of explosiveness. If launched, they could cause hundreds of millions of immediate deaths and billions more in the ensuing nuclear winter. Human civilization may never recover. Such a global catastrophe overwhelmingly dwarfs the Syrian civil war, making it by far the larger priority.
This focus is not to say we shouldn't care about the human tragedy in Syria. To the contrary: it's precisely because we do care about the Syrians, and everyone else around the world, and all future generations of humans who would love the chance to experience life, that we must prioritize reducing the risk of U.S.-Russia nuclear war, or any other civilization-ending global catastrophic risks.
<snip>
U.S.-Russia cooperation over Syria's chemical weapons may be able to help lower U.S.-Russia tensions, thereby making nuclear war less probable. Already the situation has increased civil dialogue. Following through on the diplomatic agreement to remove chemical weapons from Syria could build trust between U.S. and Russia, trust that future relations can build on. Or it could worsen tensions, if the Syria agreement ends poorly.
<snip>
If Russia can emerge as a key actor in resolving the civil war, that could earn it some of the self-confidence it needs to continue its nuclear disarmament. And Russia's nuclear weapons never played a role in Syrian diplomacy. If it doesn't need the weapons to achieve its geopolitical goals, it might as well relinquish them, with the U.S. following suit.
<snip>
[hr]
Seth Baum(http://sethbaum.com) is Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (http://gcrinstitute.org). He received a PhD in Geography from Pennsylvania State University and was recently a post-doc with Columbia University's Center for Research on Environmental Decisions.
Taming the Gigaton Gorilla: Using Syria Diplomacy to Help Avoid U.S.-Russia Nuclear War
Seth Baum
huffingtonpost.com
Posted: Sep 19, 2013
The Syrian civil war has already caused over 100,000 deaths. As tragic as this is, it is miniscule compared to the massive and potentially permanent global destruction that could come from the gigaton gorilla lurking in the background: nuclear war between the United States and Russia. While the U.S. and Russia find themselves on opposite sides in Syria, their diplomacy over Syria's chemical weapons could help build the trust and confidence needed to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
<snip>
The two countries still hold the overwhelming majority of the world's nuclear weapons: About 4,000 active weapons and 16,000 total, making for probably several gigatons of explosiveness. If launched, they could cause hundreds of millions of immediate deaths and billions more in the ensuing nuclear winter. Human civilization may never recover. Such a global catastrophe overwhelmingly dwarfs the Syrian civil war, making it by far the larger priority.
This focus is not to say we shouldn't care about the human tragedy in Syria. To the contrary: it's precisely because we do care about the Syrians, and everyone else around the world, and all future generations of humans who would love the chance to experience life, that we must prioritize reducing the risk of U.S.-Russia nuclear war, or any other civilization-ending global catastrophic risks.
<snip>
U.S.-Russia cooperation over Syria's chemical weapons may be able to help lower U.S.-Russia tensions, thereby making nuclear war less probable. Already the situation has increased civil dialogue. Following through on the diplomatic agreement to remove chemical weapons from Syria could build trust between U.S. and Russia, trust that future relations can build on. Or it could worsen tensions, if the Syria agreement ends poorly.
<snip>
If Russia can emerge as a key actor in resolving the civil war, that could earn it some of the self-confidence it needs to continue its nuclear disarmament. And Russia's nuclear weapons never played a role in Syrian diplomacy. If it doesn't need the weapons to achieve its geopolitical goals, it might as well relinquish them, with the U.S. following suit.
<snip>
[hr]
Seth Baum(http://sethbaum.com) is Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (http://gcrinstitute.org). He received a PhD in Geography from Pennsylvania State University and was recently a post-doc with Columbia University's Center for Research on Environmental Decisions.