Nuclear problems apparent at home, hidden abroad

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http://www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/contributors/2014/02/12/nuclear-problems-apparent-at-home-hidden-abroad/5423811/

Nuclear problems apparent at home, hidden abroad
Samuel B. Hoff, February 12, 2014

The new year has brought serious worries for America's nuclear force and concomitantly this nation's ability to detect nuclear weapons production abroad. Though seemingly separate, the reports revealing these deficiencies have rattled the U.S. defense network.

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Not surprisingly, a recent RAND Corp. study found a high degree of burnout among members of the U.S. nuclear missile force, prompting Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to call some of the personnel in underground bunkers for an on-the-job pep talk. Realistically, however, Hagel knows it will take more than that to turn things around, from better hiring, to more dry runs, to increased recognition for the men and women who work in this area of our military. Or, for a more radical change, the military could scrap human monitors in hardened silos for a mostly automated rotating missile setup.

Last month, a three-year study by the Pentagon's Defense Science Board concluded America's ability to detect nuclear weapons in countries like Iran are "either inadequate, or more often, do not exist." After the preemption doctrine and the Axis of Evil tag failed miserably as nuclear weapons policy during the George W. Bush administration, the Barack Obama White House is now on the hook for this scary scenario. Given the extensive use of drones to take out terrorists, the Obama team at CIA and Defense should not have a problem employing them to take in information via video. Beyond that, more human intelligence is obviously needed to compliment technology. Ultimately, better enforcement by groups such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and strengthening of existing nuclear weapons agreements are necessary to prevent proliferation of the most powerful of WMDs.

By some estimates, the United States spent more than $4 trillion in nuclear weapons development during the Cold War period of 1945-1988. With a national debt now four times that amount and downsizing from two wars underway, there seems to be momentum running against a monetary solution to either dilemma above.

Whatever the approach, failing to fix the twin problems is not an option in a world in which suspect nations possess nuclear weapons and terrorists want to.

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1. Pentagon Study Finds Agencies Ill Equipped to Detect Foreign Nuclear Efforts

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/us/politics/us-efforts-to-detect-nuclear-programs-are-inadequate-pentagon-study-finds.html?_r=0

Pentagon Study Finds Agencies Ill Equipped to Detect Foreign Nuclear Efforts
By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD
JAN. 23, 2014

WASHINGTON — A three-year study by the Pentagon has concluded that American intelligence agencies are “not yet organized or fully equipped” to detect when foreign powers are developing nuclear weapons or ramping up their existing arsenals, and calls for using some of the same techniques that the National Security Agency has developed against terrorists.

The study, a 100-page report by the Defense Science Board, contends that the detection abilities needed in cases like Iran — including finding “undeclared facilities and/or covert operations” — are “either inadequate, or more often, do not exist.”

The report is circulating just two months before President Obama will attend his third nuclear security summit meeting, set for March in The Hague, an effort he began in order to lock down loose nuclear materials and, eventually, reduce the number of countries that could build nuclear weapons. Mr. Obama’s efforts to sweep up the materials have largely been considered a success. But the report concluded that potential new nuclear states are “emerging in numbers not seen since the early days of the Cold War,” and that “monitoring for proliferation should be a top national security objective — but one for which the nation is not yet organized or fully equipped to address.”

The report confirmed what many outside experts have learned anecdotally: While the most famous intelligence failure in the past decade involving nuclear weapons occurred in Iraq, where the C.I.A. and others saw a program that did not exist, the bigger concern may be that major nuclear programs were entirely missed.

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The range of government departments that were interviewed by the Defense Science Board underscores how spread out the effort has become: Officials of several of the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies participated, along with four of the Energy Department’s National Laboratories and its National Nuclear Security Administration, the Department of Homeland Security, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the White House’s National Security Council.

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2. Study: Nuclear force feeling 'burnout' from work

"The AP was advised in May of the confidential RAND study, shortly after it was completed, by a person who said it should be made public to improve understanding of discontent within the ICBM force."

http://news.yahoo.com/study-nuclear-force-feeling-burnout-081403750.html

Study: Nuclear force feeling 'burnout' from work
Associated Press By ROBERT BURNS
November 21, 2013 4:19 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — Key members of the Air Force's nuclear missile force are feeling "burnout" from what they see as exhausting, unrewarding and stressful work, according to an unpublished study obtained by The Associated Press.

The finding by researchers for RAND Corp. adds to indications that trouble inside the nuclear missile force runs deeper and wider than officials have acknowledged.

The study, provided to the AP in draft form, also cites heightened levels of misconduct like spousal abuse and says court-martial rates in the nuclear missile force in 2011 and 2012 were more than twice as high as in the overall Air Force.

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Late last year the Air Force directed RAND, a federally funded research house, to conduct a three-month study of attitudes among the men and women inside the ICBM force. It found a toxic mix of frustration and aggravation, heightened by a sense of being unappreciated, overworked, micromanaged and at constant risk of failure.

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The AP was advised in May of the confidential RAND study, shortly after it was completed, by a person who said it should be made public to improve understanding of discontent within the ICBM force. After repeated inquiries, and shortly after the AP filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a PowerPoint outline, the Air Force provided it last Friday and arranged for RAND officials and two senior Air Force generals to explain it.

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