A World Without WWI, Featuring Health-Nut Hitler

[MissMillie]

http://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/

(of course, there is a complete transcript to read, but you can listen if you like)

******************************

SIEGEL: Two shots fired a hundred years ago claimed two lives and an entire century. The bullets fired in Sarajevo in June 1914 killed the archduke, Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and his wife. The assassination propelled the world into war. The war left millions dead. It shattered empires and it re-arranged power throughout the world.

What if the assassin in Sarajevo had missed? What if, like his small band of amateur co-conspirators, he didn't hit his target? It's hardly unthinkable. Moments before the murder, Franz Ferdinand's car made a wrong turn and it came to a stop right in front of the gunman. So, what if Franz Ferdinand had lived?

(SOUNDBITE OF SIGNALS)

SIEGEL: What if the urgent cable that day had been a little less urgent?

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Telegram to the editor of the New York World: Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina. Police here report a gunman in custody after an attempt on Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary this afternoon. The archduke returned to Vienna to get prepare for next month's...

SIEGEL: Without the assassination, no need for rulers in Vienna to threaten Serbia, no need for Russia to come to Serbia's defense, no need for Germany to come to Austria's defense, and no call for France and Britain to honor their treaties with Russia. What would be the ripples of this counter-history? Well, that's the premise of what we'll explore in this segment of the program.

*************************************************


I thought this was a fascinating piece.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. Heard it yesterday and would like to see other alternatives listeners send in...

but the thoughst of England and Germany as business partners and no Russian revolution are enough to keep me going for a while.

[unblock]

2. i think people make too much of singular events.

if peace was hanging by such a thin thread that a single bullet caused a world war, i have to think something else would have quickly come along to remarkably similar effect.

[bemildred]

3. Indeed. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

They were itching for it. That's why.

[Catherina]

4. +1 n/t

[Sherman A1]

5. Agreed

It may have been a bit later, but I am sure in one form or another WWI would have occurred. To hinge it not happening on this singular counterfactual discounts the naval race between the UK & Germany along with a tremendous amount of other factors.

[bemildred]

6. Yes, a similar story of incompetence, belligerence, and arrogance can be shown

on the Russian and Austro-Hungarian side too. Russia got a revolution, Austro-Hungary fell apart, France was half destroyed, and Britain lost the flower of a generation. And essentially it was a family feud among the ruling elites. The military incompetence on display was something.

"Dead battles, like dead generals, hold the military mind in their dead grip." -- Barbara Tuchmann "The Guns of August"

[struggle4progress]

7. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand was a pretext for the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum,

not the cause

A lot of people knew by 1912 that a major war was on the way