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Related: About this forumNew Battleground Polls Show Democratic Win at Risk with Clinton - GULP!
If Democrats underestimate Trump, like each and every of the 16 Republican candidates, like the entire Republican & Democratic establishment, and the RNC, the 'knowledgable' political media establishment, pollsters and 'experts at 538' and even (ugh) FoxNews.... then we are going to have nobody to blame for the loss of the White House but ourselves.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)but as Independents have always been key to the White House, these charts should make eyes open wide
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)And lost them in every single swing state except NC.
Independents are overrated.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)so much better !
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Without the Independent Vote which is between 40-43% of the electorale. Come on. Independents matter and the Democrats need them to win Election 2016, period.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)the argument is silly
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/overselling-the-importance-of-independent-voters/2012/11/19/1c04b598-3294-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_blog.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-independent-vote-polls-moderates-election-2012-11
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/11/13/infographic-obama-lost-the-independent-vote-in-almost-every-swing-state
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. Thats especially the case for candidates who arent even in the race and therefore havent been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)thanks for posting from 538 - they have proven their worth
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)a bit louder maybe!
Response to tomm2thumbs (Original post)
iandhr This message was self-deleted by its author.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)she just has the bonus of that extra baggage
Response to tomm2thumbs (Reply #6)
iandhr This message was self-deleted by its author.
Yallow
(1,926 posts)When you haven't cashed in, it is kinda hard to complain about what you might want to do.
On the other hand..... Hillary......
Trustworthy at 37%.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/hillary-clintons-honest-and-trustworthy-numbers-are-lower-than-ever-it-might-not-matter/
Ouch.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)It is unusual for the party to run someone who lost the last time.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Sanders doesn't do dirty tricks, so that's a strike against him in this benighted nation. But I've never seen such a fighter! The man is amazing--and manages to remain a gentleman through it all. The slime and the lies just roll off him as he forges ahead ON THE ISSUES.
Dogged. Persistent. Undauntable. Happy. He rises above the shit that our political life has become and just keeps speaking to the real problems in the real lives of our people AS IF we had a good political system. And the more people see of him and hear of him, the more they like him. He is rock solid.
All match-up polls since January have been showing that Sanders demolishes Trump. Now that it's past April, these polls are good predictors of what will happen later in the year (according to what I've read). And he's still demolishing Trump, while Clinton's margin vs Trump is shaky. She even loses to Trump in a couple of polls. With her dismal numbers on trustworthiness and favorability, vs Sanders' numbers which are high, she is the risk, not him.
She has the "baggage" that invites mudslinging against her. She also has a number of matters on which attacking her is justified (her Goldman Sachs speeches, her fossil fuel and fracking donors, her flip-flopping on important issues, her association with Kissinger, Bush, and, for that matter, Trump, and her dubious dealings with the Saudis and the Clinton Foundation). She is the one who is intensely disliked by many independents, by the young, by some Democrats and by Republicans. Gut level dislike, which is nearly impossible to overcome.
Sanders doesn't have any "baggage." We can be sure David Brock would have found it by now, if he did. Nobody can find it because there isn't any. And just looking at him you can tell he's a person who likes simple living and downhome values. He exudes honesty. He doesn't invite mudslinging. He hasn't made any atrocious political decisions. He's always stuck to his principles which are generally pretty easy to understand. He is the best candidate against Trump, who is a glitzy hot air balloon, as to image, and dangerously unpredictable, as to policy. As the polls have shown, time and again.
Fight back? Sanders has been fighting all his life for the principles he believes in. But he has another quality as well--and that is getting along with people, even diehard political opponents. He won't have to waste much time fighting back against mudslinging, as Clinton will, and defending bad decisions, as Clinton will. All he has to do is stand up and be himself, and he will make Trump look bad. In the White House, if he makes it there, he will have more time and energy for assembling coalitions and getting things done. He is very good at that, according to all reports from Vermont and from Congress. Clinton, on the other hands, is likely to inspire contentious fighting, on the campaign trail and in the White House, if she makes it there.
There are many ways to "fight back." Being honest and trustworthy is one of them. Not giving your opponents easy ammunition against you is another. Being likable and getting along with people is another. And steadfastness is another. I'd say that Sanders' steadfastness in this campaign, against overwhelming odds, is his most remarkable demonstration of his character. He will not give up, no matter how hard it gets. We need that kind of character in the White House to face up to global warming and all of its consequences. We need that kind of fighter.
quakerboy
(13,921 posts)And in the face of it being thickly applied, went from being a nobody, a guy who was going to get wiped out Kucinich style to a candidate who has won a lot of states and become a reasonably competitive (though admittedly ever longer shot) candidate for the nomination.
mitty14u2
(1,015 posts)7wo7rees
(5,128 posts)It was the interview where she said "we came, we saw, he died" and then she laughed. Not funny dear.
It was Madeline Albright telling all of us women to stand with Hillary, but what I remember Ms. Alvright most for is saying it was OK for 1/2 million kids to have died in Iraq.
http://fair.org/extra/we-think-the-price-is-worth-it/
I hold both to be reprehensible!
MFM008
(19,818 posts)Anyone remember the 2012 polls?
Romney ahead by 4
TIED
polls suck , all of them
Even ones that say HRC is ahead
everyone LIES to pollsters.
LS_Editor
(893 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)that poll is at best rated a B+ with a Republican Bias. Rave on !
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)45% of voters in Democratic Primary were Republicans and Independents..... I guess since Trump has a Cog Lock , they all decided to voted Democratic.! geeez. and with than Bern still not win enough delegates for his self proclaimed path to Victory. Now the next primary Bern will have to win a even higher number of delegates.....absurd
Yallow
(1,926 posts)You truly believe Hillary will be supporting your family instead of the banksters?
What planet do you live on again?
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)u know the one where everybody can count past 2000. Thanks HIllary for getting out and raising money from Rich to provide representation of us poor people who can not afford to donate to a candidate!
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)lastone
(588 posts)How this isn't understood by the sycophant Hillary supporters is tragic and will cost us this election. Trump beats Hillary - Sanders beats Trump, everything else is immaterial.
basselope
(2,565 posts)In the VAST majority of cases, the bias has been AGAINST the anti-establishment candidate. Sanders has been underestimated and outperformed ALMOST every poll on the democratic side and Trump has been underestimated and outperformed almost every poll on the republican side.
If Trump is EVEN CLOSE it means he is likely ahead.