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tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:00 PM May 2016

New Battleground Polls Show Democratic Win at Risk with Clinton - GULP!



If Democrats underestimate Trump, like each and every of the 16 Republican candidates, like the entire Republican & Democratic establishment, and the RNC, the 'knowledgable' political media establishment, pollsters and 'experts at 538' and even (ugh) FoxNews.... then we are going to have nobody to blame for the loss of the White House but ourselves.

30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New Battleground Polls Show Democratic Win at Risk with Clinton - GULP! (Original Post) tomm2thumbs May 2016 OP
surprising given how early it is tomm2thumbs May 2016 #1
Obama lost independents by 5 points in 2012 Proud Public Servant May 2016 #8
sounds like a landslide in the works then if Bernie is nominated tomm2thumbs May 2016 #9
There is no way that President Obama won in 2012.... LovingA2andMI May 2016 #18
they simply registered as Democrats to vote and were counted as such tomm2thumbs May 2016 #24
And yet he did Proud Public Servant May 2016 #25
'General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.' onehandle May 2016 #2
538 predicted Trump would not get the nomination tomm2thumbs May 2016 #3
Keerp on whistlin' Plucketeer May 2016 #11
This message was self-deleted by its author iandhr May 2016 #4
same for Clinton, sans the scandals tomm2thumbs May 2016 #6
This message was self-deleted by its author iandhr May 2016 #7
Sanders Has Integrity - Attacking Him Hurts The Attackers - Noticed? Yallow May 2016 #19
And she lost the last election...in her own party. zeemike May 2016 #21
Sanders doesn't know how to fight David Brock's bullshit? Lol! Peace Patriot May 2016 #29
Except that he has faced the BS quakerboy May 2016 #30
When Bernie's Free ride ends All Polls will Change Trump/GOP leaving Bernie Slide mitty14u2 May 2016 #5
Go for it, Hill!! Go for it! 7wo7rees May 2016 #10
Because Polls are NEVER wrong MFM008 May 2016 #12
Hillary is the weakest Democratic presidential candidate the party has put up in a generation... LS_Editor May 2016 #13
Am I the only one that thinks CNN is splooging the ceiling fantasizing this shit? Spitfire of ATJ May 2016 #14
Funny nobody mentioned Cryptoad May 2016 #15
CBSN reports Cryptoad May 2016 #16
After Taking All Them Millions From Wall Street Yallow May 2016 #20
Im from teh planet Wawa, Cryptoad May 2016 #28
2 Strikes... Next Attempt in 1 Minute? ^^^^^^^ tomm2thumbs May 2016 #17
Ding ding ding - we have a winner! ^^^^^ lastone May 2016 #22
Why is everyone ignoring how tilted the polls have been this season? basselope May 2016 #23
K&R. nt silvershadow May 2016 #26
CNN, America's Premier Horserace Network...of course all will change in a month, let alone 6 downeastdaniel May 2016 #27

tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
1. surprising given how early it is
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:01 PM
May 2016

but as Independents have always been key to the White House, these charts should make eyes open wide



Proud Public Servant

(2,097 posts)
8. Obama lost independents by 5 points in 2012
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:19 PM
May 2016

And lost them in every single swing state except NC.

Independents are overrated.

LovingA2andMI

(7,006 posts)
18. There is no way that President Obama won in 2012....
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:16 AM
May 2016

Without the Independent Vote which is between 40-43% of the electorale. Come on. Independents matter and the Democrats need them to win Election 2016, period.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
2. 'General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.'
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:02 PM
May 2016

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls

tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
3. 538 predicted Trump would not get the nomination
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:04 PM
May 2016

thanks for posting from 538 - they have proven their worth

Response to tomm2thumbs (Original post)

Response to tomm2thumbs (Reply #6)

 

Yallow

(1,926 posts)
19. Sanders Has Integrity - Attacking Him Hurts The Attackers - Noticed?
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:35 AM
May 2016

When you haven't cashed in, it is kinda hard to complain about what you might want to do.

On the other hand..... Hillary......

Trustworthy at 37%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/hillary-clintons-honest-and-trustworthy-numbers-are-lower-than-ever-it-might-not-matter/

Ouch.

zeemike

(18,998 posts)
21. And she lost the last election...in her own party.
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:46 AM
May 2016

It is unusual for the party to run someone who lost the last time.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
29. Sanders doesn't know how to fight David Brock's bullshit? Lol!
Wed May 11, 2016, 09:30 AM
May 2016

Sanders doesn't do dirty tricks, so that's a strike against him in this benighted nation. But I've never seen such a fighter! The man is amazing--and manages to remain a gentleman through it all. The slime and the lies just roll off him as he forges ahead ON THE ISSUES.

Dogged. Persistent. Undauntable. Happy. He rises above the shit that our political life has become and just keeps speaking to the real problems in the real lives of our people AS IF we had a good political system. And the more people see of him and hear of him, the more they like him. He is rock solid.

All match-up polls since January have been showing that Sanders demolishes Trump. Now that it's past April, these polls are good predictors of what will happen later in the year (according to what I've read). And he's still demolishing Trump, while Clinton's margin vs Trump is shaky. She even loses to Trump in a couple of polls. With her dismal numbers on trustworthiness and favorability, vs Sanders' numbers which are high, she is the risk, not him.

She has the "baggage" that invites mudslinging against her. She also has a number of matters on which attacking her is justified (her Goldman Sachs speeches, her fossil fuel and fracking donors, her flip-flopping on important issues, her association with Kissinger, Bush, and, for that matter, Trump, and her dubious dealings with the Saudis and the Clinton Foundation). She is the one who is intensely disliked by many independents, by the young, by some Democrats and by Republicans. Gut level dislike, which is nearly impossible to overcome.

Sanders doesn't have any "baggage." We can be sure David Brock would have found it by now, if he did. Nobody can find it because there isn't any. And just looking at him you can tell he's a person who likes simple living and downhome values. He exudes honesty. He doesn't invite mudslinging. He hasn't made any atrocious political decisions. He's always stuck to his principles which are generally pretty easy to understand. He is the best candidate against Trump, who is a glitzy hot air balloon, as to image, and dangerously unpredictable, as to policy. As the polls have shown, time and again.

Fight back? Sanders has been fighting all his life for the principles he believes in. But he has another quality as well--and that is getting along with people, even diehard political opponents. He won't have to waste much time fighting back against mudslinging, as Clinton will, and defending bad decisions, as Clinton will. All he has to do is stand up and be himself, and he will make Trump look bad. In the White House, if he makes it there, he will have more time and energy for assembling coalitions and getting things done. He is very good at that, according to all reports from Vermont and from Congress. Clinton, on the other hands, is likely to inspire contentious fighting, on the campaign trail and in the White House, if she makes it there.

There are many ways to "fight back." Being honest and trustworthy is one of them. Not giving your opponents easy ammunition against you is another. Being likable and getting along with people is another. And steadfastness is another. I'd say that Sanders' steadfastness in this campaign, against overwhelming odds, is his most remarkable demonstration of his character. He will not give up, no matter how hard it gets. We need that kind of character in the White House to face up to global warming and all of its consequences. We need that kind of fighter.

quakerboy

(13,921 posts)
30. Except that he has faced the BS
Wed May 11, 2016, 11:53 AM
May 2016

And in the face of it being thickly applied, went from being a nobody, a guy who was going to get wiped out Kucinich style to a candidate who has won a lot of states and become a reasonably competitive (though admittedly ever longer shot) candidate for the nomination.

7wo7rees

(5,128 posts)
10. Go for it, Hill!! Go for it!
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:23 PM
May 2016

It was the interview where she said "we came, we saw, he died" and then she laughed. Not funny dear.

It was Madeline Albright telling all of us women to stand with Hillary, but what I remember Ms. Alvright most for is saying it was OK for 1/2 million kids to have died in Iraq.

http://fair.org/extra/we-think-the-price-is-worth-it/

I hold both to be reprehensible!

MFM008

(19,818 posts)
12. Because Polls are NEVER wrong
Tue May 10, 2016, 10:38 PM
May 2016

Anyone remember the 2012 polls?
Romney ahead by 4
TIED
polls suck , all of them
Even ones that say HRC is ahead
everyone LIES to pollsters.

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
16. CBSN reports
Tue May 10, 2016, 11:53 PM
May 2016

45% of voters in Democratic Primary were Republicans and Independents..... I guess since Trump has a Cog Lock , they all decided to voted Democratic.! geeez. and with than Bern still not win enough delegates for his self proclaimed path to Victory. Now the next primary Bern will have to win a even higher number of delegates.....absurd

 

Yallow

(1,926 posts)
20. After Taking All Them Millions From Wall Street
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:37 AM
May 2016

You truly believe Hillary will be supporting your family instead of the banksters?

What planet do you live on again?

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
28. Im from teh planet Wawa,
Wed May 11, 2016, 08:46 AM
May 2016

u know the one where everybody can count past 2000. Thanks HIllary for getting out and raising money from Rich to provide representation of us poor people who can not afford to donate to a candidate!

 

lastone

(588 posts)
22. Ding ding ding - we have a winner! ^^^^^
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:49 AM
May 2016

How this isn't understood by the sycophant Hillary supporters is tragic and will cost us this election. Trump beats Hillary - Sanders beats Trump, everything else is immaterial.

 

basselope

(2,565 posts)
23. Why is everyone ignoring how tilted the polls have been this season?
Wed May 11, 2016, 12:52 AM
May 2016

In the VAST majority of cases, the bias has been AGAINST the anti-establishment candidate. Sanders has been underestimated and outperformed ALMOST every poll on the democratic side and Trump has been underestimated and outperformed almost every poll on the republican side.

If Trump is EVEN CLOSE it means he is likely ahead.

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