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(7,410 posts)Putin positions himself as rigid and unyielding. He leaves, within his own rhetoric, no room for negotiating. In this way, he has painted himself into a corner in which he either completely wins or he completely fails. It is a flawed position because he shows his incredible weakness disguised as overpowering strength. Such is the downside of being an autocrat: either you are completely successful, or you become a tragic failure. Putin is, IOW, abandoning politics for a flawed, artificial ideology.
He cannot negotiate an end to the fighting because doing so would cause his mission to fail.
He cannot win the war because UKR will, in the short, medium, and long term extend their will to fight against the Russian intruders with an unending supply of munitions and other aid from the West. This supply will never stop. For as long as there are Ukrainians in Ukraine, the occupiers will be dying by a thousand cuts. This is human nature and fact.
He cannot stay in Ukraine and wage war indefinitely because his own nation is taking a deep dive into poverty from trade sanctions. Russia is being cut off international commerce. And as we are beginning to notice with more frequency, Russia is not a self-sustaining first world power. They are as interdependent as any other nation, and they are cutting off their own prosperity for an autocrat's outdated notion of realpolitik. Russia is now in the middle of a massive dearth of "quality of life" commerce that may, eventually turn them into a nation that regresses to the daily life of the 1940s.
None of this bodes well for Putin, who is now closing off portals of information to Russian citizens. Russians are noticing that they can't access information from outside Russia. They know that something is seriously awry with their government. Remember, Putin cannot withdraw from Ukraine, he cannot win a war with Ukraine, and he cannot survive a defeat. That's because of his opening justification for destroying much of Ukraine. He cannot listen to the government, nor the population of Ukraine because doing so would require compromise. And Putin absolutely cannot compromise.
So Putin is trapped by his own policy, his own rhetoric. He is destroying not one country, but two. Ukraine AND Russia. And he is guaranteeing that HE will fail. What will that failure look like? Russia has no current mechanism for a peaceful transfer of power. Putin destroyed that mechanism a long time ago. What is left is a transfer of power by force. If Russia's hierarchy doesn't intervene, Putin will devastate Russia from severe sanctions. Social unrest will explode, and Russia's economy will largely cease to function. The longer the war continues, the longer it will take for Russia to gain a foothold in the world economy. If Putin were replaced NOW, it would likely take several years for Russia to regain a viable economy. If Putin survives for a year or more, it will take decades.
The West now sees that Putin is not interested in interdependence. They now see Putin as an active menace obsessed with empire. And they privately are likely seeing as plausible any policy that will have the effect of removing Putin from power. Putin can no longer be an international power or leader. He's got no credibility with anyone. He will fight those who challenge him, but the handwriting is on the wall. It will get far worse for him (and Russia) before it gets better for everyone.