BREAKING: NY Democrat Pat Ryan SHOCKS with election win for Congress DEFYING POLLS - Meidas Touch

[Rhiannon12866]

Democratic candidate for Congress Pat Ryan is confirmed as the winner for the open seat election in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Every poll had his Republican opponent Marc Molinaro leading before today’s election. One of the decisive issues Pat Ryan ran on was protecting a women’s right to choose.

[PortTack]

1. I really do think this is a bellwether for the Dems. A much better indicator than any of the polls

[Rhiannon12866]

2. I sure do, too. It's long past time, but it sounds like the times are a changin!

The Republicans/SCOTUS went too far and the voters are reacting. Kansas was not an aberration.

[elias7]

3. I think polls have become inaccurate because R voters deliberately sabotage by lying

[PortTack]

16. I think you may be on to something there. I don't pay any attention to the polls anymore

It’s either as you said, or the pollsters have lost their edge…or some of both

[Roy Rolling]

4. The Forest for the Trees

The political issue isn’t abortion, it’s women. Hiding behind calling it a medical procedure dehumanizes the process…for the mother.

It shouldn’t be a shock that people love their mothers and all women more than political hacks passing morality laws to hide their political weakness.

Republican men and women are gobsmakacked by the election results, Democrats not so much. We don’t hide behind paeudo-medical science to exploit women.

[bronxiteforever]

5. Kick & recommend. N/t

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Ridiculous that the polls had what was a (D) seat

that was vacated after the (D) became Lt. Governor, and the area voted for Biden in 2020, yet instead chose to manufacture ridiculous percentages predicting an (R) win.

Thankfully some of the media are calling this a "bellweather" race.

Congrats to Pat Ryan!

[Claustrum]

9. This district voted for TFG in 2016. It was a swing district.

It voted for Obama in 2012 too.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. Correct

and the parts of it that were NY-19 before the redistricting in 2012 voted for Obama too in 2008.

Yet a choice was made to over-emphasize a freak 45 win to assume that a (R) was going to get it hands down despite the district voting for Biden in 2020 (and all or part voting for Obama twice), and goes to show the complete bullshit of who they thought were "likely voters", vs the reality.

Down here with PA-1, which is just outside of Philly, is where you see a truer "swing district", where "well known" (locally) moderate (R)s have been elected for the most part (with a (D) getting the seat during the 2006 wave and as part of the 2008 Obama coattails, but losing in 2010) despite (D) Presidential majority votes from such a district.

[Claustrum]

11. I think part of the "hype" for republicans were that polling were all wrong point to a 5-10 points

win for them. So the MSM hyped it. Instead, it showed democrats being more willing to vote than republicans.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. I saw in another thread for this race

where Deminpenn mentioned the potential issue with assuming who the "likely voters" were going to be - at least based on past precedent for mid-years the first term of a new party. I.e., looking at the "approval" ratings of that party's President, and the issues that they keep trying to pound on like "inflation!!1!!!1111!" and "high gas prices!!1!!!!111!" that have started to come down (yet I am now hearing cherry-picked anecdotes reported as "news" by those outlets about what consumers "are paying" ), and thus they assumed that Democrats would lay down and take the beating and relent.

Despite what was in their faces, they really really underestimated the overturn of Roe v. Wade - which unless something is passed federally to codify it, it is PERMANENT, which makes those stakes much higher. Yet "inflation" and the economy have always been "transitory" conditions.

In essence they woke a sleeping giant - and we really need to show that no, we are NOT asleep. And it needs to happen in the state legislatures as well because that is who will control our lives when the SCOTUS starts revoking rights.

[Claustrum]

13. I think the makeup of the "likely voters" for both parties have changed since TFG.

As much as we hate it, he did awaken some rural uneducated white voters to vote for him. And the reasonable, more educated people came over to our party. We've seen it in 2018 where when TFG wasn't on the ballot, their voter don't show up. That used to happen on the democratic side where our voters don't show up in midterms. It will take more years to see if that assumption holds but it means that the old "likely voters" model is likely no longer viable.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. He definitely woke up the enthusiastic deplorable voters

although now, the pandemic has taken out quite a few of them since 2020.

But after years of people hearing over and over that "Roe is 'established law'" and then finding out it wasn't, I think (and am hoping it pans out) that the whole younger demographic who it will impact, who talk a good game but don't show up to actually vote, will finally become at least some "larger" portion of "likely voters" as a part of what happened this past June.

Many of them were out there at BLM protests and the fact that you saw the result of that KS referendum, with quite a bit of cross-over vote, you are going to have an election of split votes and "under votes" (not voting for all of the candidates on the ballot). And when that happens, the polls can't possibly capture such a phenomena.

[blue-wave]

7. And many more "D" wins to soon follow

[RocRizzo55]

8. Ulster County exec. Vs Dutchess County exec.

I know them both. Glad to see that Pat won. I really cannot stand little Marc’s cloyingly sweet talk. Marc already tried and lost a gubernatorial race. I bet he tries again. Little Marc just wants to get his name out so that he can eventually run for president. I know Marc better, because I retired from Dutchess County government several years ago, and have had many run ins with him. Nice to your face, but will stab you in the back given the chance.
Yes, the area is quite Republicon leaning, but the district has had Dems before. The last rep was a Dem, as was the local icon, Maurice Hinchey. Boy, do I miss Mo. He was a real friend, and a great representative for WE THE PEOPLE in Congress. I hope that Pat can do half as good a job as Hinchey did.

[underpants]

15. Congratulations on your milestone

160,000 posts.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10181698910