Fantasy Football Start em - Sit em week 6 - Make Your NFL Picks

[Johnny Ready]

Hello and welcome to start em sit em week 6 in the NFL with your host "The tenuously employed baztard, or TEB if you'd like. Week 6 promises to be a very exciting week as several teams are fighting for their first win and several teams are starting to establish themselves as contenders in their respective division. This year has been full of surprises and this week should be interesting to say the least.

Now to the predictions: Naturally you will want to start the players you drafted in the first five or six rounds, the purpose of this post is to offer starters who may not be on your radar who will have a good, very good or great week 6.

Start em -
Fred Jackson RB - Buffalo Bills
Austin Pettis WR - St. Louis Rams
Leonard Hankerson WR - Washington Redskins
Eddie Royal WR - San Diego Chargers

Sit em -
CJ Spiller RB - Buffalo Bills
Cam Newton QB - Carolina Panthers
Nate Washington WR - Tennessee
Rashard Mendenhall RB - Arizona Cardinals

This weeks winners:
Pittsburgh over the Jets
Baltimore over Green Bay
Buffalo over Cinn
Detroit over Cleveland
Houston over the Rams
K.C. over Oakland
Minnesota over Carolina
Philly over the Bucs
Denver over Jacksonville
Seattle over Tennessee
Saints over New England
49ers over Arizona
Dallas over Washington

San Diego over Indianapolis on Monday Night Football - score 31 - 24

Good luck this week!

So who do you like to win this week?

[Callmecrazy]

1. Bye week for my 'fins...

And my disappointing Giants are going against Da Bears. I'm not very hopeful.

[Johnny Ready]

3. Brandon Jacobs was a bright spot for the G men. If the Giants can run the ball

they could turn their season around. Sad to say I had very high hopes of David Wilson this year and drafted him, wow that hurt.

Speaking of the draft I also drafted Mike Wallace. As a Dolphins fan how do you see him evolving this year? In fantasy football it pays to have a big name receiver who plays in warm weather during the winter part of the season. I'm hoping to see the Dolphins throwing to him in December, like Bruce Lee throwing twinkies at the masked avenger. Quick and often!

Go Dolphins!

[fizzgig]

2. let's see what denver does against jacksonville

they are notorious for blowing the easiest games. and i have no idea who to root for in the kc/oakland game. i hate the raiders, but i want to see the chiefs get smacked down.

[Johnny Ready]

4. Maybe before Peyton Manning joined the Bronco's but this is a very different team

with Peyton in command and John Elway in the front office. One player can make a difference especially when that player is Peyton Manning. Since recovering from his serious neck injury and joining the Bronco's last year he has played at a level only he is capable of. The addition of Wes Welker has created a nightmare for defenses trying to decide which Bronco receiver to double. As expected the Denver running game has also benefited from the pressure put on defenses to stop the pass first when playing against Peyton Manning and co. At this point they look like the AFC contender for the Superbowl.

Ok. I'll make it official, I'm picking Denver to be in the Superbowl this year, and win. Why, Peyton Manning is capable of leading them to the big game and his intelligence will be the difference. He always knows the right answer at the line of scrimmage. Go Bronco's!

KC could be in a great position this year.

[fizzgig]

7. i will always expect them to blow easy games

it's been ingrained in me. thank gods their offense is so strong because the defense isn't.

they looked sloppy today,

[Johnny Ready]

8. I didn't get to see the game, but you have a good point

defense wins championships. Hopefully the D will keep improving. Who do you like on Monday night?

[JonLP24]

10. Not so much anymore

Baltimore defeated the top 2 defenses in Denver and SF on the way to their SB title.

NY Giants and New England went to the Super Bowl over the better defenses of Baltimore (this D was much better than the year they won the SB) and SF.

Pittsburgh had one of the best defenses in the league but lost to Green Bay.

Here is the reason why.

Top Offenses > Top Defenses

In terms of SR and EPA, the best offenses are "better" than the best defenses in terms of performance. And in terms of WPA, the best offenses have bigger impacts on game outcomes than the best defenses do. This is something I wrote about three years ago, when I noticed that the distribution of yards-per-play efficiency was wider for offenses than for defenses. Now, in terms of more advanced statistical measures in a broader set of data, the same trend holds.

A variable's standard deviation (SD) is a measure of the width of its distribution. The ratio of the SD of offensive SR to the SD of defensive SR is 1.25. The ratio for EPA is 1.27. And the ratio for WPA is 1.26. Offenses are spread out 25% wider than defenses in terms of performance and impact on outcomes.

The reason, I suspect, is that most of the offense flows throw the QB or RB. The QB in particular is singularly critical to offensive success. The QB is responsible for much more than just throwing passes. He calls audibles, reads the defense, calls blocking assignments, and is responsible for organizing and managing the offense. Nearly every play an offense makes is heavily dependent on the skill of a single player.

On defense, success depends on a more equal division of responsibility. The wider the division of responsibility, the more "average" the success of the squad. In individual-player sports such as tennis or golf, individuals can dominate the field for many years. Federer or Woods did not have their talent level diluted by less dominant teammates. A five-man bball team can be "star-based" because there are only four other players to dilute the skill of the star.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/top-offenses-top-defenses.html

I do hope Denver clamps down on D but it is encouraging to see that Denver probably has the greatest single-season passing game in history.

[Johnny Ready]

11. That was a nice breakdown of some very interesting statistics

and numbers don't lie. I like numbers, they make sense and your post verifies what I have felt all along. Most things in life can best be analyzed through the numbers.

On the other hand the line "defense wins championships" in my view means the two teams preparing for the Superbowl already have a great offense. At that point the better defensive performance in the big game should dictate the winner. But that's just my view of the phrase. Don't get me wrong as a former player I can say you are right, without an offense that will produce the defense will suffer and losses are more likely regardless of how good you are on defense.

Watching Peyton Manning at this point in his career is a treat to football fans across the country. He is a good guy and it is nice to see the Denver area excited about their team. I think much of Peytons' success can be attributed to John Elway being a former QB in the exact same stadium. A great QB who ended his career brilliantly with back to back Superbowl wins. It would be awesome to see Peyton do the same, and go out on top. The other factor is John Elway knows from experience the best way to win with a great QB is to let him do his thing. Allow him to be great, it seems to be working.

By the way thanks for the link, and the stats wow.

[JonLP24]

12. Numbers don't lie as long as you don't use them to lie

(From the same site)

How to Lie with Statistics

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/08/how-to-lie-with-statistics.html

You're welcome, it is by far my favorite site for football stats and analysis.

*******

I remember people used to make arguments that it is crazy to start a rookie QB (Cam Newton was the last QB I saw this argument) so advancednflstats looked at judging from QBs who sat and those who didn't and came up with a conclusion that was obvious -- NFL teams should start the best QB they have on roster.

[Johnny Ready]

14. Here's a question, it seems in the NFL when a starter goes down

the backup has a great chance at putting up similar numbers. The question is why does that possibility not apply to QB's? It is really hard to find a backup QB turned starter who can perform like the original starter, but that is not necessarily the case in any other position. Maybe it's practice time, or getting used to game speed I'm not really sure why.

Funny thing about a QB, they all believe they are the best on the roster. For the record I was a WR and a CB, but of course I thought I could be the best QB too.

[JonLP24]

5. CJ Spiller would have the guadiest stats if he was a workhorse back

This season isn't a great example but he gives you the most bang per carries.

[Johnny Ready]

6. Good point, but it seems without Ryan Fitzpatrick the Bills

have become fairly predictable or maybe not as balanced as when he was with the team. Fitzpatrick was inconsistent at times but he was a threat and this helped the Bills establish themselves as a great running team. I should have considered that possibility when I drafted CJ Spiller in the first round this year. Luckily I also drafted Fred Jackson on each team that I have. Of the two CJ Spiller may be as you say "most bang per carries" but being a Floridian I always root for Jackson to do well.

Go Bills!

[Johnny Ready]

9. Cam Newton - sit em ok that was a bad call. Doh!

Nice work Cam.

I thought Adrian Peterson would run all over Carolina similar to when Brett Farve threw something like 4 tds when his Dad went to heaven. By the way we all love you A.P. hang in there.

[OriginalGeek]

13. Whew! that was close!

This was a perfect* football weekend.

I won in both my fantasy leagues and my Cowboys whupped Washington

It went down to the last second tonight though - I had Vincent Brown and an IDP going tonight and he had Danny Woodhead. I had about a 10 point lead going into tonight. VB and my LB Antoine Bethea kept me ahead in the game all night but they just wouldn't make it easy for me. I was following along on Stat-Tracker and he would creep up on me then I'd get a solo tackle then he'd creep up on me and VB would catch a pass...all night with this mess...I clenched my taint so much I am now a kegel grand master.


*To be an un-asterisked perfect football weekend my favorite college team would have needed to win - but FSU had a be week. So they didn't lose.

[Johnny Ready]

15. How bout them Cowboys!

Sounds like you had a great weekend of football, it is fun when the games are close both in fantasy and in the NFL. The Cowboys do seem to have a distinct home field advantage, especially when they are on tv. Watching Dallas play Washington is always an entertaining game. Rarely will I pick the Cowboys to lose at home, maybe I just like the cheerleaders an awful lot.

FSU is a great program, I could have played for them. Ok that is a lie, I'm not even close to fast enough, then or now.

Go Cowboys!

Good luck next week.