Idle historical conspiracy theory: migration periods happen every 1600 years

[Recursion]

Around 1200 BC a huge migration wave unsettled all of Europe and western Asia; it toppled the Mycenaens, was possibly involved in the historical Trojan war, ended the Hittite empire, and caused the fall of the 19th Egyptian dynasty (this is "the sea peoples" theory that has been getting more popular press lately, though some of this is more tenuously based on what kind of pottery shards appear where).

1600 years later, around 400 AD, another wave of migrants knocked out the western Roman Empire, the Kshatrapas in India, and the vestiges of the Han in China.

It's now about 1600 years after that migration period, and we're also possibly seeing the start of an immense migration period.

Thoughts:

1. In all three cases, the actual source of the migrating people seems to have been western Asia (this is more controversial for the first case)

2. In the previous two cases, the effects of the migrations were felt throughout Eurasia as they disrupted international trade (the 2nd migration period led to the Dark Ages in western Europe, the pinnacle of Byzantine power, the onset of the "6 Dynasties" dark ages in China, and the prosperous and stable Gupta Empire in India after centuries of foreign encroachment; it was also the context in which a young import-export clerk named Muhammed started preaching his revelation).

3. All three periods seem to have been if not caused at least exacerbated by climate change: Herodotus mentions a drought and famine causing the sea peoples to move; the second period corresponds to the beginning of the "warm period" that lasted until 1400 or so; and obviously you don't need anybody to remind you about the impact of climate change today.

[malthaussen]

1. As with many things, it depends on your definition.

From ~1500 A.D. to ~1900 A.D., North America received vast numbers of migrants, which upsets the pattern. (South America got a few, too, but most of them went to N.A.)

The we have the Mongols, who flooded Central Asia and pushed the indigenous peoples into the Mideast and South Asia. ~1200 A.D., also breaks the pattern.

-- Mal

[cemaphonic]

2. Some others

Vikings between ~800-1000. Along with their raiding expeditions, they set up settlements in Russia, England, Sicily, and all over the North Atlantic.

Russia 1500-1900. In the 15th century, Russia was a collection of small city-states in Eastern Europe, 400 years later it was a huge continental power that stretched all the way to the Pacific. And while populations in Siberia have never been high, the Russians did displace a lot of the native population, and culturally Russify most of the remainder. The resettlement policies of the Soviet Union resulted in an awful lot of ethnic Russians and Germans ending up in Central Asia as well.

Moorish Spain (and the later Reconquista)

There was a large Turkish migration starting around the 11th century that led to them politically dominating Persia, Egypt, the Levant, and eventually completely supplanting the Greek population in Anatolia. (And then, a few centuries later, the Ottomans had a pretty profound influence in the Balkans and Danube basin.)

And yeah, I agree that the Mongol period and the colonization of the Americas (Australia too) are massive, probably the largest population shifts the the world has ever seen.