Brown tax hike plan may bring in less than estimated
The governor says a sales and income tax hike could bring in $6.9 billion a year. The Legislative Analyst's Office says it's likely to generate just $4.8 billion in 2012-13.
By Anthony York, Los Angeles Times
January 9, 2012, 9:13 p.m.
Reporting from Sacramento—
Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to raise taxes on sales and high earners could bring in billions of dollars less than he is counting on to help balance the state's books, according to the Legislature's main financial advisor.
Brown, who hopes to put his proposal before voters in the fall, says it would generate nearly $6.9 billion annually to help close the budget deficit over the next five years. But the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office estimates that it is likely to generate just $4.8 billion in the 2012-13 budget year and about $5.5 billion in subsequent years.
The governor's plan would boost the state sales tax by half a cent and increase levies on incomes of $250,000 or more for the next five years. It is the linchpin of the $92.6-billion spending blueprint that Brown unveiled last week. If voters reject the tax measure, Brown says, it would mean billions less for schools next year and more cuts in both of California's public university systems.
A joint letter from Department of Finance director Ana Matosantos and Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor released Monday says that predicting how much Brown's tax measure could yield is difficult because of its partial dependence on income taxes. The money the state receives from top taxpayers can vary wildly from year to year.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20120110,0,418461.story
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All the money from the tax package would go to education and public safety (read: prisons), which have more eestablished constituencies than we do. 