The Final Indignity: How Republicans Lost a Safe Seat

[pinboy3niner]

By Tony Quinn
Political Commentator and Former Legislative Staffer
Tuesday, December 4th, 2012


For 26 days, Lancaster council member Ron Smith, a Republican, was an Assemblyman-elect, that is until the very last votes were counted in Los Angeles County on Sunday and by 145 votes Smith lost his seat to Democrat Steve Fox. Smith came out of election night several thousand votes ahead but a huge glut of late provisional ballots cost him the seat. “There is a political group that has learned how to manipulate the election by playing with provisionals,” huffed Smith. He’s right; it is called the voters.

...


Smith raised and spent about $285,000 on his campaign, but all of that was in the primary. Once he was the only Republican in the runoff he coasted, assured of election in this “safe” Republican district. And his opponent Fox, raised only $20,000 and loaned himself another $40,000 – he had no organized state Democratic support.

...


Ron Smith joins an interesting list of GOP candidates who thought for sure they were going to win but who lost because of Latino voter strength. There is Bill Berryhill, favored for a Senate district in Stockton; Jeff Miller, running for an open Senate seat in Riverside; Tony Strickland, running for Congress in Ventura; Chris Norby, running for re-election for the Assembly in Orange County. And what do all of them have in common: they all ran in districts with a growing Latino vote and they all voted against the DREAM Act.

Democrats actually failed to make the gains they could have in this election; there are about half a dozen newly-elected Republicans in districts like Smith’s who faced unknown and unfunded Democrats in 2012 but still had mediocre showings because of Latino turnout in their districts. If the progressive agenda of dismantling Proposition 13 and increasing oil and other business taxes is to become a reality, Democrats need to defeat these Republicans in 2014. They saw how it can be done in the Smith district; they will be waiting and ready next time.


http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2012/12/the-final-indignity-how-republicans-lost-a-safe-seat/

[sabrina 1]

1. I forget which journalist or blogger it was who predicted that the Repubs would lose

despite the polls because they were not taking into account the Latino vote. Their anti-immigrant stance probably brought out that vote in large numbers.

I wonder now that they've seen the huge impact it had in this election, will we start seeing Republicans suddenly pushing for fair immigration laws?

.

[Indykatie]

2. If the Election Process Worked Properly There Would Not be 1000s of Provisional Ballots Involved

that would swing a race result from a lead of thousands to a slim loss.