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30% mark has been passed. Some prior percentages for comparison within email below.
Not able to post graphs today, but they are in the links below.
Today’s tracker brings in more data, and we’ve surpassed 30% turnout.
There was real concern about turnout in a special election, in an odd numbered year, in September. A low turnout election can produce a very skewed electorate, with unexpected outcomes. On the fivethirtyeight podcast the other day, Nate Silver scoffed at the idea that the turnout in this election would be low, but it was clearly on the minds of California consultants.
Looking at special elections just this year, we see turnout in the teens and low-20s:
54th Assembly District Special: 14%
79th Assembly District Special: 21%
30th Senate District Special: 13%
Those weren’t statewide special elections, but they were low-engagement special elections held this year.
In statewide special elections we had just 28% turnout in May of 2009, 50% in November of 2005, and 61% in 2003 special recall, with the celebrity power of Arnold Schwarzenegger drawing voters to the polls.
Another issue when we’re looking at this election is the massive universe of 22 million registered voters. Turnout of 60% of this electorate would mean there were 13.2 million votes cast. That’s roughly as many as voted in the 2008 Presidential that was, at the time, the highest percentage turnout election in more than 30 years.
I’m sure we will hear more about turnout later, but, suffice it to say, having high turnout in this election wasn’t seen as a safe bet by most observers, myself included. But at 30% turnout already, we have to presume we are safely going to be over 50%, and have more votes cast than the 2010 or 2014 November General elections. We could get near the total raw voter turnout in the 2018 General.
Aside from all the slicing and dicing of the electorate, simply getting high turnout could be enough to doom this recall. Registration in California is 2:1 Democratic. To get Republicans and No votes on the recall to a higher percentage of the total votes cast, they really need low turnout. That, however, doesn’t appear possible anymore.
Get today’s PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/xU7ouz7BPaOU2OdY or check out the tracker on the website at https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-special-election-tracker/.
There was real concern about turnout in a special election, in an odd numbered year, in September. A low turnout election can produce a very skewed electorate, with unexpected outcomes. On the fivethirtyeight podcast the other day, Nate Silver scoffed at the idea that the turnout in this election would be low, but it was clearly on the minds of California consultants.
Looking at special elections just this year, we see turnout in the teens and low-20s:
54th Assembly District Special: 14%
79th Assembly District Special: 21%
30th Senate District Special: 13%
Those weren’t statewide special elections, but they were low-engagement special elections held this year.
In statewide special elections we had just 28% turnout in May of 2009, 50% in November of 2005, and 61% in 2003 special recall, with the celebrity power of Arnold Schwarzenegger drawing voters to the polls.
Another issue when we’re looking at this election is the massive universe of 22 million registered voters. Turnout of 60% of this electorate would mean there were 13.2 million votes cast. That’s roughly as many as voted in the 2008 Presidential that was, at the time, the highest percentage turnout election in more than 30 years.
I’m sure we will hear more about turnout later, but, suffice it to say, having high turnout in this election wasn’t seen as a safe bet by most observers, myself included. But at 30% turnout already, we have to presume we are safely going to be over 50%, and have more votes cast than the 2010 or 2014 November General elections. We could get near the total raw voter turnout in the 2018 General.
Aside from all the slicing and dicing of the electorate, simply getting high turnout could be enough to doom this recall. Registration in California is 2:1 Democratic. To get Republicans and No votes on the recall to a higher percentage of the total votes cast, they really need low turnout. That, however, doesn’t appear possible anymore.
Get today’s PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/xU7ouz7BPaOU2OdY or check out the tracker on the website at https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-special-election-tracker/.