33 percent ballots returned or 7,311,750

[IcyPeas]

From Paul Mitchell, Vice-President, Political Data:




A Berkeley IGS Poll just released as I’m about to hit “send” suggests that 70% of the in-person voters are pro-recall, which can be a bit of good news for proponents. But, all voting methods considered, they show the recall losing with 39% Yes, 60% no.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1g8696rv

Get today’s PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/FXog5Pnn6OLEO5Wb or check out the tracker on the website at https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-special-election-tracker/.

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Paul Mitchell
Vice-President
Political Data

[JohnSJ]

1. I think this election may be a bellwether for 2022

[onecaliberal]

2. 7 million is greater than 1 million.

Those who want the recall struggled to get the signatures required. They were given several time extensions.

[Thomas Hurt]

3. I don't think the christofascists expect to win, they would be delighted if they did of course.

I think the real goal is yet another big lie in the election fraud propaganda campaign. Recall fails and they start squealing. The trumpers in my family have already written it off as another unfair election. Newsome has the fix in...blah, blah, blah.

The lawsuits, the rallies, the AZ fraudit, OH, CA recall. There will be more of these running up to 2022 elections designed to the keep the big lie in the media, the cultists fired up.

Oh and of course another rallying cry for money.

[Northern_Light]

4. Has anyone heard when they'll have results?

Does anyone know, have they been counting ballots as they are returned or will they start counting Tuesday?

Wondering if 8:01pm pst we'll heard it's over since latest poll shows 60% 'no'.

Looks like this was a giant waste of time and money.

[Retrograde]

5. Depends on how close it is

Polls close at 8 PDT. The first totals - mostly from mail-in ballots - can be announced then. However, mail-in ballots postmarked by 8 on election day are counted as long as they're received within 3 working days (standard: it was increase to 17 days for the last election because of a combination of pandemic and post office delays). Then there are the provisional ballots, which are processed after election day. Officially the counties have about a month to finish all the counting and get their official results to the Secretary of State: that's when the election is finally certified. With only one issue, this will probably be quicker.

The media will have its usual race to see who can call the election first with only a fraction of the vote in, but if mail-in results are heavily skewed that can give an indication of how its going. Given the GOP whining, I'm hopefully optimistic.

FWIW, there have been close Congressional races recently where it took about 2 weeks to decide the results. I'm hoping this will go more quickly.