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How Democrats pulled off a big upset in Florida
VoxThis week, Democrats got a rare bit of good news in Florida: For the first time in years, they flipped the mayoral seat in Jacksonville, the most populous Republican-led city in the country. The win, driven by former news anchor Donna Deegan, was widely seen as a major upset for the GOP, which increased its dominance in the state during the 2022 midterm elections.
Deegan’s win is a significant victory for Democrats, but may not be a sign of a sea change in Florida politics. She won fairly narrowly, bringing in 52 percent of the vote to Republican Chamber of Commerce leader Daniel Davis’s 48 percent. And though Jacksonville is part of Duval County, Florida, which is historically Republican, the area is considered more of a swing district than other parts of the state. Jacksonville has elected mayors of both parties in the last two decades, while Duval County’s supported both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in recent years. In 2016, former President Donald Trump won the area, and in 2020, President Joe Biden did.
Deegan was also uniquely bolstered by the strength of her candidacy and an inclusive message about change that brought in Democrats, independents, and a decent number of crossover Republicans. A nightly regional news anchor for 25 years who went on to have a public fight with breast cancer, Deegan had deep ties to the Jacksonville area and strong voter recognition. She was also able to capitalize on a voter base disappointed with current Republican leadership as crime in the city has stayed high, and as a recent bid to privatize Jacksonville’s public utility has been mired in scandal.
“She had two things going for her,” Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale told Vox. “One is she is a phenomenal candidate. If you grew up in Jacksonville, you grew up with Donna Deegan. I’ve known who Donna Deegan was since I was 11 years old. [Plus,] the outgoing administration also had some issues and you saw a lot of dissatisfaction with the direction of the city and a real desire for change.”
Deegan ran a broadly positive campaign, with a focus on bringing people of different parties together and making Jacksonville government more inclusive and representative of the city’s population. Deegan also spoke about changing the culture of city government and making it more transparent. Some of the top issues she has said she would focus on as mayor include addressing aging infrastructure, improving the city’s health outcomes, and boosting support for small businesses. Even as Deegan sought to be more inclusive in her messaging, Davis tacked sharper to the right in his campaign, a move that may have hurt him.
Deegan’s win is a significant victory for Democrats, but may not be a sign of a sea change in Florida politics. She won fairly narrowly, bringing in 52 percent of the vote to Republican Chamber of Commerce leader Daniel Davis’s 48 percent. And though Jacksonville is part of Duval County, Florida, which is historically Republican, the area is considered more of a swing district than other parts of the state. Jacksonville has elected mayors of both parties in the last two decades, while Duval County’s supported both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in recent years. In 2016, former President Donald Trump won the area, and in 2020, President Joe Biden did.
Deegan was also uniquely bolstered by the strength of her candidacy and an inclusive message about change that brought in Democrats, independents, and a decent number of crossover Republicans. A nightly regional news anchor for 25 years who went on to have a public fight with breast cancer, Deegan had deep ties to the Jacksonville area and strong voter recognition. She was also able to capitalize on a voter base disappointed with current Republican leadership as crime in the city has stayed high, and as a recent bid to privatize Jacksonville’s public utility has been mired in scandal.
“She had two things going for her,” Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale told Vox. “One is she is a phenomenal candidate. If you grew up in Jacksonville, you grew up with Donna Deegan. I’ve known who Donna Deegan was since I was 11 years old. [Plus,] the outgoing administration also had some issues and you saw a lot of dissatisfaction with the direction of the city and a real desire for change.”
Deegan ran a broadly positive campaign, with a focus on bringing people of different parties together and making Jacksonville government more inclusive and representative of the city’s population. Deegan also spoke about changing the culture of city government and making it more transparent. Some of the top issues she has said she would focus on as mayor include addressing aging infrastructure, improving the city’s health outcomes, and boosting support for small businesses. Even as Deegan sought to be more inclusive in her messaging, Davis tacked sharper to the right in his campaign, a move that may have hurt him.
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