12-point shift by independents make Iowa U.S. Senate race ‘too close to call’

[cyberswede]

CEDAR RAPIDS — In the race for the first open Iowa U.S. Senate seat in nearly four decades, a shift by independent voters toward Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Bruce Braley makes that contest too close to call.

He trails Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. That’s within the poll’s 3.2 percent margin of error.

{snip}

Ernst had a 50 to 44 percent lead a month ago, including a 50 to 43 percent lead among independent, Quinnipiac found. But the current poll shows independents backing Braley 48 to 43 percent.

{snip}

Women back Braley 52 to 39 percent, up from 50 to 44 percent in September, according to Quinnipiac. Men back Ernst 56 to 38 percent, virtually unchanged from 56 to 39 percent in September.

http://kcrg.com/subject/news/12-point-shift-by-independents-make-iowa-us-senate-race-too-close-to-call-20141015

Also, Braley is ahead among those who have already voted. Cross your fingers.

[Dawson Leery]

1. I notice when positive topics appear, they have little to no responses.

OFA/DFA on the ground has been as aggressive as they were in the past cycles.

Brailey could win by up to 5 points.

[vadermike]

2. Good news

I was getting worried , yes I know I'm a worry worry Wort , but this is good news!!

[Dawson Leery]

3. It is not a done deal.

The Clintons need to campaign with him next week.

[LoisB]

4. Very good news.

[Bettie]

5. Braley is a favorite attack target for the right

And he always pulls it out.

He's a decent guy and I do think he'll win.

I can't imagine Ernst winning a statewide race.

[cyberswede]

6. I've seen so many attack ads against Braley it's unbelievable.

On website banners, before YouTube videos, multiple times a day. It will be a disaster if she wins.

[Bettie]

7. Not only that, but for Iowa's first female national office holder

to be certifiably crazy would be a terrible embarrassment.

He'll pull it out. He always does.

He's been behind before and pulled it off.

[Dawson Leery]

8. Do you live in Iowa?

[Bettie]

9. Yep

For the last 12 years we've lived here.

Both the husband and I were born and raised in Wisconsin, moved to Illinois for a few years and are now in Iowa.