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So it's looking like Axne vs Young again in 2020
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2019/07/19/ia-03-zach-nunns-out-cindy-axne-out-raised-david-young/Apparently Zach Nunn backed out of the race
SIZING UP A REMATCH
Some central Iowa Republican sources believe that having President Donald Trump on the 2020 ballot will bring out low-propensity voters who lean conservative, sweeping Young back into office. Republican commentator Craig Robinson expressed a similar view during an Iowa Public Television appearance in May.
Bleeding Heartland will consider that scenario more thoroughly in a forthcoming post. As you can see from the interactive map and table enclosed below, Axne defeated Young last year by running up the score in Polk County and keeping the GOP margin low in nearby Dallas County. Like many successful Democratic challengers around the country, she performed well in suburban precincts that had long favored Republicans. So I’m not convinced that Trump on the ballot will be an asset to Young.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates IA-03 “leans Democratic,” partly because of the high percentage of college-educated voters and partly because Fred Hubbell did well here in last year’s governor’s race.
I am inclined to agree with the Cook Political Report’s toss-up rating for now. Suburban voters may not continue to trend Democratic, and we don’t know yet which party will benefit more from extremely high expected turnout next November. On paper, IA-03 is about as evenly divided as a district could be, with 170,018 active registered Democrats, 169,837 Republicans, and 174,565 no party voters, according to the latest official numbers. Both Young and Axne will have extensive Congressional voting records that provide fodder for positive and negative ads. That’s why some Republicans privately felt the party would do well to nominate a new candidate with less baggage.
Some central Iowa Republican sources believe that having President Donald Trump on the 2020 ballot will bring out low-propensity voters who lean conservative, sweeping Young back into office. Republican commentator Craig Robinson expressed a similar view during an Iowa Public Television appearance in May.
If you look at how David performed in 2016 and compared it to 2018 you see that there was about a 13 point drop off in the part of the district that he won in 2018. So there’s plenty of I think votes out there for him to get that could help him recapture this seat. Republicans don’t have a problem I think with who David Young is, the type of campaign he runs, it was just kind of the perfect storm that knocked him out and I think if there’s ever an opportunity to have, to give someone another shot at getting the seat back, I think this is a good one for David to take on.
Bleeding Heartland will consider that scenario more thoroughly in a forthcoming post. As you can see from the interactive map and table enclosed below, Axne defeated Young last year by running up the score in Polk County and keeping the GOP margin low in nearby Dallas County. Like many successful Democratic challengers around the country, she performed well in suburban precincts that had long favored Republicans. So I’m not convinced that Trump on the ballot will be an asset to Young.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates IA-03 “leans Democratic,” partly because of the high percentage of college-educated voters and partly because Fred Hubbell did well here in last year’s governor’s race.
I am inclined to agree with the Cook Political Report’s toss-up rating for now. Suburban voters may not continue to trend Democratic, and we don’t know yet which party will benefit more from extremely high expected turnout next November. On paper, IA-03 is about as evenly divided as a district could be, with 170,018 active registered Democrats, 169,837 Republicans, and 174,565 no party voters, according to the latest official numbers. Both Young and Axne will have extensive Congressional voting records that provide fodder for positive and negative ads. That’s why some Republicans privately felt the party would do well to nominate a new candidate with less baggage.