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question everything

(47,407 posts)
Sat Nov 19, 2022, 11:42 PM Nov 2022

Minnesota added 17,400 jobs in October, most in 2022

Minnesota's strong labor market is showing no signs of cooling off and is now outperforming the rest of the country. New data released Thursday showed the state added more jobs in October than it has in any other month this year, while its unemployment rate remains among the nation's lowest.

"Despite another tumultuous year in the global economy as we've all seen, there's every reason to believe Minnesota's economy is in a position of strength," Steve Grove, commissioner of the state Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), said after the latest jobs numbers came out.

(snip)

The Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates to bring down high inflation, and policymakers hope to see signs that the red-hot labor market is starting to cool down. Unemployment rates are also expected to go up. If that happens, Minnesota is better positioned than most other states because its unemployment rate remains so low. The state's jobless rate ticked up one-tenth of a percentage point in October to 2.1%, but it remains at a historically low level.

Earlier this year, Minnesota recorded the lowest state jobless rate in U.S. history at 1.8% and has remained the lowest. The U.S. unemployment rate in October was 3.7%.

While a big racial gap in unemployment persists in Minnesota, it narrowed last month as the the state's Black jobless rate came down by almost a full percentage point to 5%.

More..

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-added-17400-jobs-in-october-most-in-2022/600226941/

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For the ones who wanted to vote the state top executives out...

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progree

(10,883 posts)
1. That's great. I hope some of those are bus drivers --
Sun Nov 20, 2022, 12:47 AM
Nov 2022

In October, my entire route 705b was eliminated because of a driver shortage. Now I have to walk 1.5 miles to catch the 705a, a 30 minute walk.

Additionally, route 755, which only runs during a 2-hour period in the morning and a 2-hour period in the afternoon, is being cut from 9 trips each way to 6 trips each way on Dec 3. Big cuts elsewhere, again due to the worsening driver shortage.

It's impossible to go somewhere in the morning (busses run only in 2 early morning hours) and do some shopping or errand, and then come back the same morning. The last bus to return home in the morning is 7:12 AM -- before any store opens!. One has to wait around and do something until the afternoon to get a bus to return home. So it's really not a substitute for most purposes.

(No way to go in the afternoon and get back, unless it's a very short errand or shopping trip).

I'm not way out in the sticks. I'm just 4.2 miles west of the IDS Tower. So its not like I'm whining about the lack of farmhouse-to-farmhouse service.

Others are noting a severe shortage of childcare and eldercare workers.

=======================================

Nationally, the labor force participation rate has been dwindling from a high point of about 67.3% in 2000 to 62.2% now. (It was 62.2% in January, so there hasn't been any progress in that all year).

Meanwhile the population of elderly (such as me) needing more and more service (me not yet but soon) grows.

Labor force participation rate: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Labor force in thousands: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000



Anyway this is the dark side of the labor picture as well as wages not keeping up with prices on a 12 month basis (although in the past 4 months they have been with a sharp downturn in inflation).

Thanks for the post

progree

(10,883 posts)
2. Inflation cooling: last 4 months: CPI: 2.8%, Core CPI: 5.3%, PPI: 0.06%, Core PPI: 2.5% (annualized)
Sun Nov 20, 2022, 01:08 AM
Nov 2022

In case people question my statement in the above post: "in the past 4 months they have been with a sharp downturn in inflation"

The title line are the last 4 months (October over June) AT AN ANNUAL RATE.

I know I know, you won't find this in the media anywhere. They are fundamentally incapable of reporting anything besides the one month change and the twelve month change. They are fundamentally incapable of understanding that maybe the first several months of a 12 month period are ancient history. And yes, they are fundamentally incapable of calculating inflation rates from the data.

Note also the PPI generally leads the CPI. So that the PPI is 0.06% and Core PPI is 2.5% is a good harbinger for the next CPI report in about a month from now.

CPI https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116

CPI = Consumer Price Index,
PPI = Producer Price Index aka wholesale prices
The Core CPI is the CPI less food and energy
The Core PPI is the PPI less food, energy, and trade services

How the 4 month inflation figures were calculated:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=17358410

progree

(10,883 posts)
4. Yes. Unfortunately food at home is still awful on a 12 month basis, 12.4%
Sun Nov 20, 2022, 02:55 PM
Nov 2022

that the media is infatuated with, regardless of what's been happening in the last few months. Because they can.

Food at home, BLS data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11

Food at home, Base Period: 1982-84=100
Year Jan Feb Mar .... etc. .... October
2022 270.996 274.747 278.735 281.653 285.711 288.618 292.495 294.684 296.708 297.882

But in the last 3 months it has cooled:

Food at home, percent change from 3 months ago
Year Jan Feb Mar .... etc. .... October
2022 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.1 2.8 1.8

Food at home, percent change from a month ago
Year Jan Feb Mar .... etc. .... October
2022 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.4

Using the original 6 digit index data above:

3 month change: 1.8% (annualized: 7.6%)
4 month change: 3.2% (annualized: 9.9%)

I haven't been able to find the "food" or the "food away from home" BLS time series yet.

But FRED has

Food: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL
+2.2% in last 3 months (9.1% annualized. UGHH)

Food away from home: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEFV
+2.8% in last 3 months (11.6% annualized. UGHH)

Anyway, all-in-all, food is still an inflation hot spot.


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