8/25 Franklin and Marshall Poll has Fetterman, Shapiro ahead

[Deminpenn]

https://www.getrevue.co/profile/fandmpoll/issues/franklin-marshall-poll-release-august-2022-1324503

Democrat Josh Shapiro currently holds an advantage over Republican Doug Mastriano in the 2022 race for Pennsylvania Governor, 44% to 33%. Shapiro receives a larger share of Democrats (76%) than Mastriano receives among Republicans (66%), and Shapiro also leads among independent voters 40% to 24%. Shapiro is viewed more favorably (44%) than unfavorably (32%) by the state’s voters, while Mastriano tends to be viewed more unfavorably (49%) than favorably (28%). More voters believe Shapiro best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians (47% to 33%) and is closest to their views on social issues (45% to 32%), but the two candidates are relatively close when it comes to being viewed as having policies that will improve voters’ economic circumstances (36% to 33%).
Democrat John Fetterman currently holds an advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz in the 2022 race for Pennsylvania US Senator, 43% to 30%, although the race is a bit closer when those who are leaning toward a candidate are included (45% to 36%, Fetterman). Fetterman receives a larger share of Democrats (76%) than Oz receives among Republicans (62%), and he also leads among independent voters 34% to 17%. Fetterman is viewed more favorably (43%) than unfavorably (36%) by the state’s voters, while Oz tends to be viewed more unfavorably (57%) than favorably (27%). More voters believe Fetterman best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians (52% to 28%) and is closest to their views on social issues (46% to 32%), but the two candidates are relatively close when it comes to being viewed as having policies that will improve voters’ economic circumstances (37% to 33%).

The full poll: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/952120655243389694-f-mpoll-august2022-toplinereport.pdf?utm_campaign=Franklin%20%26%20Marshall%20College%20Poll&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

Lots of interesting questions and responses.

[rso]

1. Pennsylvania

So far so good, Mastriano is a particularly dangerous candidate, as in PA., the Governor appoints the Secretary of State (Chief Elections Officer).

[FakeNoose]

2. The teevee news pundits want us to believe it's a horserace in Pennsylvania

But I live here and I can see for myself that it's not even close. Both Fetterman and Shapiro are going to win by more than 10 points. Even the Repukes are planning to vote for our Dem candidates, because their own are so terrible.

Another important office is the Attorney General. Josh Shapiro won re-election as AG in 2020 but he'll resign that position this November when he wins the Governorship. As it turns out, Shapiro will have the opportunity as Governor to name his successor at AG, who will fill out the term until 2024. This is an important point because a strong on-the-ball Attorney General is our safeguard against the crazy stuff the Repuke legislature keeps trying to pull, like "fake electors" and such.

[Deminpenn]

3. True about the horserace narrative

Jmho, but that why the polling average sites like RCP and 538 are so popular. Using an average distorts the current state of races exactly because it uses old data along with new and makes the races seem closer or not than they are actually are.

For ex, recently an MSNBC host was discussing the Fetterman/Oz race and showed a Trafalger poll with Fetterman only up 48-44 with no mention that Trafalger has a significant R bias.

[FakeNoose]

4. They want us to believe it's close so that we'll stay glued to our Teevee sets

It's the same with the local weather reports. Every little rain shower gets reported as a potential hurricane now, just because.

[Deminpenn]

5. Yup

nt