CNU Prof. Rachel Bitecofer: "Hard to Imagine a Scenario" in Which Virginia Dems Don't Take Back

[TexasTowelie]

CNU Prof. Rachel Bitecofer: “Hard to Imagine a Scenario” in Which Virginia Dems Don’t Take Back House of Delegates


The following highlights and press release are from Dr. Rachel Bitecofer’s new report on the Virginia 2019 legislative elections and from CNU’s Wason Center for Public Policy. Let’s start with the highlights (bolding added by me for emphasis; notes by me in parenthesis and italics following the quotes from Bitecofer’s analysis):

• “With two post-Trump elections behind them, both of which had produced large turnout surges for Democrats and sympathetic Independents aligning with Democrats, Republicans already faced an uphill battle defending their General Assembly majorities this year. Then, the federal courts struck down 11 House of Delegates districts due to racial gerrymandering. The court-ordered revisions affected the boundaries of 25 districts and made additional Democratic Party pick-ups even more likely. Several Republicans strategically retired.” (Agreed; the Bethune-Hill case was crucial, which is why Republicans fought so hard to maintain their racial gerrymandering.)

• “Turnout in the 2015 cycle was low at 29.1% of registered voters, a typical turnout rate for the off-, off-year cycle. Turnout varied widely by district, ranging from 10% to 40%, according to this recent analysis from the Virginia Public Access Project. Over the Obama era, low turnout generally benefited the Republican Party, whose own voting base tends to be older and predominately white — two demographic groups with less variance in their turnout than other demographic groups.” (See my analysis, What Happens if Virginia Dem Turnout in 2019 Reverts More to Normal, Historical Patterns for Odd/Off-Year Elections?)

• “In the polarized era, as more voters have sorted into the two political parties ideologically, with liberals in the Democratic Party and conservatives in the Republican Party, turnout of each party’s loyal constituencies has become more important in terms of deciding which party will prevail on Election Day…The small portion of each electorate who are “pure” Independents are top targets for each campaign, and “persuadable” within reason…” (Agreed; I’ve been saying this for a long time now.)

Read more: https://bluevirginia.us/2019/09/cnu-prof-rachel-bitecofer-hard-to-imagine-a-scenario-in-which-virginia-dems-dont-take-back-house-of-delegates

[elleng]

1. Good