John Curtice: By-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

[LeftishBrit]

This was another disappointing election night for the Conservatives, with two by-election defeats and two gains for Labour.

Not only did they lose Kingswood, where Labour needed a relatively modest 11-point swing. They also lost Wellingborough, where an 18-point swing was required for the seat to change hands.

In the event, the swing in Kingswood was 16.4%. But that was overshadowed by the result in Wellingborough where the swing was 28.5% - the second highest swing from Conservative to Labour in any post-war by-election.

Big though these swings were, they were not a major surprise. In the second half of last year, the Conservatives lost three seats to Labour thanks in each case to swings of more than 20%.

(More at link):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68305798

[LeftishBrit]

1. Good news of course

but note that some RW Tories are spinning it as 'Reform are taking votes from the Tories; we must move further right!'

[T_i_B]

2. For many right wingers....

.....right wing ideology can never be the reason behind any kind of defeat or setback. In any setting, and in spite of any evidence to the contrary. Even in cases like these where the evidence that right wing politics has become out of touch to the working age population is overwhelming.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Sunak's net approval rating is now lower than May's or Johnson's ever was

and it's still hilarious to see Truss plummet to -80% approval. PopCons!

Sunak faces prospect of another byelection defeat after Scott Benton loses appeal against 35-day Commons suspension

Rishi Sunak faces another likely byelection defeat. The Commons independent expert panel, which deals with appeals from MPs accused of misconduct, has rejected an appeal from Scott Benton against a standards committee recommendation saying he should be suspended from the Commons for 35 days for offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

The 35-day suspension will have to be approved by the Commons as a whole, but that will be a formality. And once that has been agreed, because the suspension is longer than 10 days, the Recall Act kicks in, which means that if 10% of voters in the constituency sign a petition calling for a byelection, there will be one. In all recent cases, that 10% threshold has been achieved comfortably.

Benton is MP for Blackpool South and he had a majority for the Conservatives of 3,690 at the last election over Labour. Given the current state of polling, this looks like an inevitable Labour win.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/feb/20/post-office-horizon-scandal-conservatives-kemi-badenoch-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-live?page=with:block-65d487418f089ef9a4ddd1b4#block-65d487418f089ef9a4ddd1b4