United Kingdom
Related: About this forumCounty Council elections on 2nd May
It's that time of year when I do the obligatory thread about the local elections, that are going on at the moment.
This year it's County Council elections in England & Wales. There are also mayoral elections in Doncaster & North Tyneside. Given the train wreck that is local politics in Doncaster that might be of some interest. Will Peter Davies (who has parted company with the English Democrats) keep the Mayor's job or will people in Doncaster find somebody sensible to do the job?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/default.aspx?gclid=CPf_4JGHxbYCFUzHtAodpE0AZg
Please feel free to comment on the local elections, and local politics in your neck of the woods here.
I live in Derbyshire, and Labour really need to win back control of Derbyshire County Council from the Tories this year. However, I haven't seen any political campaigning round where I live for quite some time. Daft as it sounds I would actually appreciate some election literature as most of my interest is on what goes on over the border in South Yorkshire.
LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)The county council as a whole is Tory-dominated, notoriously incompetent, and quite nasty in certain respects (though at least the vicious Keith Mitchell finally retired as leader last year). The composition after the last election in 2009 was 52 Tories, 10 LibDems, 9 Labour, 2 Greens, and 1 Independent. However, the councillors elected by Oxford city voters, as opposed to those in the outlying more rural areas, are very rarely Tories. There has been a reduction of the number of councillors from 74 to 63, and a fairly massive reorganization of the boundaries. The boundary changes mean that I will have a different councillor from last time. I will be voting for the Labour candidate who seems to be a good person: a primary school teacher, with a serious interest in education. He will probably win, judging from the polls. But I doubt that the Tories will lose control of the Council overall (sigh).
So far: I have had visits from both the Labour candidate and the Green candidate. The LibDems, who at one time would have had a reasonable chance in a ward like ours, have been pretty silent so far. So have the Tories, except that my MP, Nicola 'Tory twit' Blackwood, sent out a leaflet about all her own great achievements as MP, ha ha.
Big issues include education (Oxford schools, especially at secondary level, have not been doing very well) and the impact of the cuts in the funding allocated by the national government.
non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)She's had a lot of bad press lately and the council's been swinging left ever since the General Election.
Good chance that the minority Lib Dem administration at Northumberland will go the journey too. The Lib Dems are as popular as anthrax hereabouts since Clegg took Cameron's shilling. Four years ago they had the majority on my local Ashington Town Council. This time round, only 2 Lib Dems are bothering to put their heads above the parapet.
The Skin
mwooldri
(10,303 posts)Last time around we got a virtual Tory "clean sweep" winning all but one seats on the council. No Lib Dems (who were in the majority three elections ago). No Labour. No Greens. Only one Independent.
I have no idea what will happen but imo it is likely for a Tory Hold. I have no idea whether the Lib Dems will make a comeback or whether the ticket is to run as an independent. But a Tory uber-majority is not healthy for democracy and can lead to corruption.
tjwmason
(14,819 posts)In the mid-'90s there was a point when it was the only Conservative majority county council in the entire country.
The main issue in county politics is education, and in particular the grammar school system which is still in place.
I gather that historically there was a Labour presence locally (though the minority), but that most of the activists went to the S.D.P. and thence the LibDems...I say 'I gather' as I would still have been in nappies when this happened.
The outgoing council's composition:
Conservatives: 45
Lib Dems: 11
Labour: 1
Independent: 1
I don't much likelihood of change in these numbers. The Labour and LibDem councillors all come from the towns (Aylesbury, High Wycombe, and Chesham); with the Conservatives having a pretty clean-sweap of the rest of the county. A couple of the Conservative councillors represent parts of Wycombe or Aylesbury which might be vulnerable...but as the second-place has been held by the LibDems I don't think much will happen. A few of the LibDem seats may switch to Labour, particularly those in Wycombe which has more of an active Labour party than Aylesbury. Overall I would be surprised if more than two or three change hands.
tjwmason
(14,819 posts)They're now the second party on the council - still dominated by the Tories.
Conservatives - 36
UKIP - 6
LibDems - 5
Labour - 1
Independent - 1
I would wager a large amount of the money that the UKIP surge is very significantly motivated by local opposition to H.S.2.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)The current council is 24 Lib Dems, 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent, and 54 Tories. I expect the Lib Dems will lose a few, since the previous election was before 2010. Perhaps these 2 defectors from the Tories to UKIP will stand a chance - since they've been senior councillors before, they won't suffer from the "probably just a nutter UKIP found in the pub" suspicion that UKIP can project (or is it just me who tends to think that way?) But I'd be amazed if the Tories drop below the 40 needed for a majority.
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 15, 2013, 03:24 PM - Edit history (1)
...I would also mention the "chancers nobody else wants anything to do with" tendency with UKIP. Apprently they are meant to me making a bit of a push at these elections, but I'm afraid that I just can't see what they are meant to contribute at county council level.
Here in Derbyshire the make up of the county council is as follows
Conservative - 33 seats
Labour - 22 seats
Liberal Democrats - 8 seats
Independent - 1 seat.
The Tories won control of the county council off labour last time out and Labour will need to win Derbyshire Council back this time around. Whether or not they can do that I don't know as campaigning has been pretty thin on the ground if I'm honest. I'm not even sure of the local issues other then spending cuts.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)UKIP gain from Lib Dems in Eastleigh East, Eastleigh West, and Bishopstoke and Fair Oak - all in the Eastleigh constituency that had the by election (and UKIP came 2nd to the Lib Dems in the other 3 in that constituency).
In my ward, it was still Con 1st, Lib Dem 2nd - the Tories lost 12% of their vote (to 39%), the Lib Dems 2.5% (to 32%) , so it became a relatively close race. UKIP were 3rd, with 22% of the total.
Overall, it's now Tories 45 (-6), Lib Dems 17 (-8), UKIP 10 (+10), Labour 4 (+3) , independents 2 (+1).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-22367794
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21840013
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)I must say, I've been in East Anglia last week and where there are a few places where people have put up plenty of election signs you wouldn't have any idea local elections are due this week in Derbyshire.
Norwich is awash with Green Party posters and I saw a good few Lib Dem posters & signs in Colchester.
Is there much campaigning going on where you are?
LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)Apparently Labour and Green are virtually neck and neck in this ward. I will vote Labour; some of my family members are voting Green; I was considering it. Anyway, it's nice to be in a ward where the contest is between Labour and Greens, and the Tories are nowhere. The County Council as a whole will probably, however, remain Tory-controlled, though they will probably lose seats.
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)And given the lack of campaigning, I would be surprised if it changed hands.
In addition to the 3 main parties I have checked and we do have an independent & a UKIP candidate in my ward. Although I don't think either will do much.
non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)A particularly good - though worryingly policy-lite - Labour campaign. I suspect that the Lib Dems, who are marginally less popular than hemorrhoids hereabouts at present, will lose seats to both Labour and the Tories on Northumberland CC and that Labour will win (though with what size majority I wouldn't like to predict).
Not a lot of UKIP activity though there's a whiff of scandal about a UKIPer and bogus postal votes in Blyth in the local media which Hope not Hate picked up on last night.
Nobody seems to be giving Linda Arkley, the Wicked Witch of North Tyneside, much chance. I suspect that the elected mayoralty itself may be for the push if Labour wins.
The Skin
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)They tried to abolish the elected mayor in Doncaster, but it was rejected as it was obviously motivated by spite towards Peter Davies.
Now Peter Davies may be a total knob and a bigot, but he's a total knob who got elected because everyone else in Doncaster politics has failed. Hopefully the people of Doncaster kick him out today but the attempt to abolishg the elected mayor position in Doncaster was the wrong way to go about that, just as abolishing the GLC was the wrong way for Margaret Thatcher to deal with Ken Livingstone.
non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)The big problem in North Tyneside is that it's a curiously varied borough - I'm told that the Tynemouth and North Shields Metro station areas show the biggest difference in economic profile between any two commuter stations in the country. (Now there's fun topic for a thread! )
It has some of the wealthiest commuter belt areas on Tyneside, some the poorest rust belt estates and just about everything in between. So what has tended to happen is that mayoralty has swung back and forth between Labour and Tory while the council has not usually swung in sequence. In France you might get "cohabitation" and compromise but in North Tyneside you get something more like the current US situation with the Mayor and cabinet proposing and the council disposing ...
The Skin
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)Last edited Sat May 4, 2013, 05:43 AM - Edit history (2)
Labour have won that contest by 590 votes. I suspect that Peter Davies splitting from the English Democrats (who have been hoovering up many disaffected former BNP members) might have been the factor that swung it here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21701661
Good riddance to bad rubbish, but Doncaster is a strong candidate for the worst local authority in the country and I don't envy Ros Jones her job if she's to sort the place out.
fedsron2us
(2,863 posts)probably with good reason as they are now starting to win the odd local council by-election in this part of the world.
Whether they can muster enough votes to take some county seats is another matter.
Of course UKIP only have to take between 5-10% of the Tory vote for the Conservatives to be in trouble nationally.
I think they may gain a much bigger share of the protest vote than that tomorrow.
The Lib Dems would normally do well around here with an unpopular Tory administration in Westminster but sadly for them Cleggie dished their chances of winning by joining the coalition
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)Still can't see any merit in voting UKIP at county council level I'm afraid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098
The Conservatives have lost control of Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire councils, but retained five others, while Labour made modest gains in the Midlands and the south of England.
And Labour candidate Norma Redfearn defeated the Conservative incumbent Linda Arkley in the North Tyneside mayoral contest.
Most of the counts will take place later on Friday.
non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)Goodbye Linda Arkley. Don't jam your broomstick in the door as you leave ... Interesting that UKIP didn't have a mayoral candidate in North Tyneside. The UKIP North-South divide will be worth watching.
The Lib Dem meltdown in South Shields and North Tyneside bodes well for Labour (and, to some extent, the rural Tories) in Northumberland, which counts later today.
The Skin
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)The wards UKIP won were a mixture of normally rock solid Tory areas and wards which tend to swing between the parties. UKIP did very well in Basildon for instance.
What surprised me most was the Greens picking up a couple of wards in Essex. In areas where you wouldn't normally expect to see the Greens challenging for 3rd place in an election!
LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)The Skin
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)He posted: First day and ended up drunk on chang (beer) followed by Thai whiskey woke up with a thumping head. Today had my tablet repaired and had a nice sauna massage. Tomorrow must get down to business and join a gym.
And on Tuesday, he posted: Get my condo tomorrow. 6 months wirh (sic) sea views all on barter cant wait. Also has swimming pool below lovely.
Mr Watson's wife Phattawan Watson, 31, who is from Thailand, told The Gazette her husband left the family home, in Mozart Close, Brighton Hill, suddenly two weeks ago, leaving her to look after their three young children.
http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/10398101.Why_was_UKIP_election_candidate_Dave_Watson_away_in_Thailand_/
You have to read the whole thing. He's abandoned his wife and children, emails her with the excuses he gave to the paper, saying he hopes they've been thrown off the scent, since the election is coming up (but can't work out that she, of course, will pass that on to the paper - I don't think he realises how much she now hates him), and his campaign manager is doing an Iraqi Information Minister routine, saying everything's fine, and he'll be back in a week or two.
He came second. That's a bullet dodged.
LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)They could run a tourism agency with special links to Thailand and Argentina.
fedsron2us
(2,863 posts)The swings show they are not all coming from the Tories
Like it or not this shows quite a high level of discontent with the three main political parties and their rather smooth identikit, PR focus group orientated leaders
Main surprise for me of this election is not that UKIP have polled so well as I was expecting them to take about 20% of the vote in the Tory shires but how well the Lib Dems vote has held up in some of their West Country strongholds. It has surprised me. I thought they were destined for electoral annihilation but now I am not so sure, Where they have strong local organisation it seems they can still cut it.
BTW my wife is at our local count and it seems UKIP have put all the sitting Tory County Councillors to the sword where I live polling twice as many votes as them in some places.
non sociopath skin
(4,972 posts)Here in Northumberland, the Tories actually gained a couple of seats - one from Labour - narrowly denying Labour an outright victory. No UKIP victories here, in fact hardly a presence.
Looks like the Lib Dems will finish up staying in the administration with one of the other parties. More instability.
The Skin
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)Take Hertfordshire and Hampshire (where I grew up, and where I live now). Both south east, and fairly similar, in terms of town sizes (Southampton and Portsmouth are unitary, so no large cities in either county council).
2009 Herts:
Con 55
Lib Dem 17
Lab 3
BNP 1 (fuck ...)
Green 1
2009 Hants:
Con 51
Lib Dem 25
Lab 1
Ind 1
So, pretty much the same, you'd think - a bit more Lib Dems in Hants, but not much. This year's results:
2013 Herts:
Con 46
Lib Dem 16
Lab 12
2013 Hants:
Con 45
Lib Dem 17
UKIP 10
Lab 4
Ind 2
UKIP couldn't get a single ward in Herts, but took 10 in Hants. Labour's bounced back well in Herts - taking 3 wards off the Tories in Stevenage, for instance (and it may be worth noting that the Stevenage MP has been from the winning party since 1974 (though it was combined with other towns till 1983); the county council Stevenage wards went 5 Labour, 1 Lib Dem, 0 Tories).
Labour has a reasonable base in parts of Herts, and they were able to take back wards they used to hold. UKIP came 2nd to the Tories in a lot of the Tory strongholds, but couldn't win anywhere in the county. In Hants, there are fewer areas that think about voting Labour; the Lib Dems were getting the non-Tory vote there, but UKIP seems able to take some of that.
fedsron2us
(2,863 posts)Last edited Fri May 3, 2013, 01:01 PM - Edit history (4)
anytime soon but they are going to take enough of the vote particularly from the Tories to make it well nigh impossible for them to win a General Election. The thing I noted about UKIP around here was that they have put in some ground work contesting all local by-elections right down to parish level, were reasonably well organised and appear to have targeted the seats which they won. I don't think their victory is going to be a flash in the pan and unless they make a complete lash up of it I expect them to repeat the performance by taking District Council seats from the Tories and Liberal Democrats in next years local election. BTW the wards UKIP won round here are not historically True Blue in the way that some more rural Sussex areas vote. This part of the Sussex Coast was a Liberal Democrat stronghold in the 1980s and 1990s when they ran all the local District Councils. If people are assuming that it is just blue rinse Tories voting for UKIP then they are not really paying attention.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)and I've yet to find anyone who doesn't consider UKIP to be daft in the head.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)http://www.hertsdirect.org/actweb/election/div18.htm Bishop's Stortford East: 23.7%
http://www.hertsdirect.org/actweb/election/div19.htm Bishop's Stortford Rural: 35.1%
http://www.hertsdirect.org/actweb/election/div8.htm Bridgewater: 22.1%
http://www.hertsdirect.org/actweb/election/div3.htm Goffs Oak and Bury Green: 25.4%
and so on. More common in the rural areas, but in some sizeable towns too.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)is regarded by some as being Essex.
Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #30)
T_i_B This message was self-deleted by its author.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)LeftishBrit
(41,210 posts)Just barely, but no one really saw this coming, though they were expected to lose seats.
31 Tories, 2 Greens, 15 Labour, 11 LibDems, 4 Independent (know nothing about any of the latter).
The Tories will no doubt govern as a minority, and be just as right-wing and incompetent as ever; tho' maybe not quite as personally nasty, since the delightful Keith Mitchell (who would always much rather slag off his critics, including kids, on Twitter than actually do his job) is finally retiring!
One of the Witney wards went Labour, which was very unexpected. Big gloat in David Cameron's general direction!
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)It's now 43 Labour, 18 Conservatives, 3 Lib Dems. The ward where I live went Labour as well, which IMHO might be just as well as their candidate in my ward was somebody who I don't rate.
Although UKIP had a strong showing in some areas, they didn't get any council seats round here.
The King of Prussia
(737 posts)Because it seems to me likely that no party managed to attract even 10% of the electorate. Well done the political class!
fedsron2us
(2,863 posts)down about 10% the last time these shire elections were last held in 2009
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098
You can compare the changes in the voting percentages for each party here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013
Labour did better than in 2009 when their fortunes were at their lowest under Brown but they still only got 29% of the votes cast nationally. UKIP in terms of vote share got 23% which was only just behind the Tories on 25% and way ahead of the Lib Dems who only got 14% of the ballots cast. The irony of ironies is that if we had PR then UKIP would probably have far more Councillors than the Lib Dems rather than less than half the number. First past the post actually seems to have benefited the Lib Dems as well as the Tories in this election
As for Labour under Miliband they did better than in 2009 but not as well as in 2005. In addition their performance was a little flattered by the fact that Durham and Northumberland were amongst the shires contested this time whereas they were not in 2009. Labour failed to take overall control of all their target counties most notably Lancashire. I can not imagine the party is that ecstatic about the results
With regard to UKIP it polled only 3.1% of the vote in the 2010 General Elections so its rise has been meteoric. The key fact for the party is that it now has a reasonably sized caucus of 147 Councillors in local government as well as its representatives in the European Parliament. This is going to be crucial for its long term influence as it is going to give it a persistent political presence both through the remainder of this Parliament and into the next one. If it repeats the successes in next years local elections for District Councillors then they will start to have the sort of electoral grounding that could lead them to becoming a national force in politics. I do not think they are likely to win many or indeed any Parliamentary seats in 2015 but UKIP votes are likely to play a key role in deciding how many Tory MPs actually get returned. After that all bets are off
The King of Prussia
(737 posts)that none of the parties standing persuaded even 9% of the electors to vote for them. And the big 3 parties are now chasing around after the less than 7% of the electorate who voted for UKIP.
Isn't the real way to succeed obvious?
fedsron2us
(2,863 posts)when the first past the post system effectively disenfranchises most of the electorate. It is basically designed to support the two party system and maintain the political establishment. The whole edifice started to creak at the last election when no party could get a majority. It is likely to rendered a complete farce if we get a substantial fourth party in the mix. Again ironically the rise of UKIP is taking British politics closer to the European model where coalition government tends to be the norm. PR would give us a more representative democracy but given the dogs breakfast made of selling it last time I do not expect to see it anytime soon unless one of the established parties looks to be heading for complete annihilation
The King of Prussia
(737 posts)The political parties are to blame. But I find it hard to buy the disenfranchisement argument when, for example, the South Shields by election was won with 19.8% of the electorate.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)7 candidates (including an independent, the Cornish nationalists, and the Greens), and Labour won a 28% turnout with 20% of votes cast.
Via Liberal Conspiracy, where they are mainly highlighting another Cornwall problem - the re-election of a nasty piece of shit Independent with just 25% of votes and 10.6% of the electorate.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)Woodside Stanborough results in full:
Woodside Stanborough
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES
Derek Scudder - Winner Liberal Democrat 1269
Philip Cox UK Independence Party 502
Tony Rogers Conservative 458
Omar Ismail Labour 376
Alison Wiesner Green Party 86
We've had more or less the same for years now local other than the current interjection of UKIP.
http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/10398028.Hertfordshire_election_results/?ref=mmsp
T_i_B
(14,747 posts)How many minuites of extra time was it again?
I'm aware of that. I'm not actually a fan of football anyway but my daughter is walking encyclopedia on the subject which I get subjected to most of the time.