Democratic Party's chance of winning the 2020 TX US Senate Race.

[nkpolitics1212]

Strong if
O'Rourke-D wins or comes closes to winning it in 2018
Democratic Nominee
Joaquin Castro/Julian runs for VP.
O'Rourke-D if he narrowly loses it in 2018
Weak If
O'Rourke-D loses by a wider margin in 2018.

[TexasTowelie]

1. I wish it weren't the case, but I have to disagree with you.

Cornyn has received generally favorable press in the major media publications. He doesn't make the headlines frequently so he isn't viewed as controversial as Cruz or many of the state-level elected officials.

I doubt that having either Castro on the ballot or an O'Rourke victory would make a significant difference on Cornyn's race. If O'Rourke does win in 2018, then the Cornyn campaign would emphasize the necessity of having a Republican senator to maintain political balance. I also don't believe that having one of the Castro brothers on the ticket would result in an upsurge in Hispanic voting since they are historically underrepresented in elections in Texas.

Unless Cornyn makes some uncharacteristic gaffes or does something illegal he appears to be secure in his spot. Please let me be wrong though.

[nkpolitics1212]

2. The Cornyn seat is likely to flip in 2026 if

Cornyn-R retires in 2026 and Republicans occupy the US Presidency.

[TexasTowelie]

3. Possibly since the demographics of the state will change somewhat during the next eight years.

One thing that will need to change is the apathy of Hispanics towards voting. While there is some improvement in getting the vote out it has not come close to reaching its potential.

However, I also feel it is fair to mention that a couple years ago when I went to pay the rent I got into a discussion with the Hispanic woman manager and she didn't have a lot of sympathy towards the immigration situation on the border. Unfortunately, people feel like they are struggling so much that they don't have generosity for others who are really struggling. It's a class divide that the Republicans exploit.