If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?

[tgards79]

Some facts:

Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.

As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.

The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.

Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!

For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html

[gab13by13]

1. People do not get motivated by bad polls

that's why polls are used for propaganda.

I never whine about the polls, whining about them means that I believe them.

Early voting is a much better indicator.

Oh, I do believe in one type of poll, exit polling.

[Better Days Ahoy]

4. 100%. I'm fed up with pollsters and poll aggregators

Self-congratulatory and self-promoting.

Reminds me of a situation with a new building construction we were insuring in Manhattan:
The plumbing contractor's workers kept smashing the toilets so that the job wouldn't end and they'd keep getting paid. And we paid the "vandalism" claims every time.

Pollsters and aggregators create the need for their imperfect products , then underwhelm. We're better off without 90% of them.

[Better Days Ahoy]

2. Part of the problem is that the polls become the headline

... instead of being a tool used in the campaign process.
The polls aren't the story, as you are seeming to say as well.
For other pollsters whose products are thrust into the spotlight every two and four years, it is a self-masturbatory effort for them.

[LenaBaby61]

3. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[LenaBaby61]

6. I never see polling ....

asking just what in sam hell is the GOP going to do to stop inflation? Pass another useless tax cut for that bastard elon musk, whose getting by on billions A poll asking why the GOP keeps voting against bills that want to lower the cost of insulin? Asking why the GOP voted against the anti-gouging bill? This so called liberal media is neither liberal nor fair, but corporate, greedy for ad dollars, clicks and views they got with the fat treasonous one. This mostly corporate right-winged Media shills for the GQP US Taliban Party. It's bad enough that you have that fat hog already saying that if the Dems hold the house and senate they cheated, and I'm wondering if this same corporate news media will fall in line with what fatso said? you see that the news media BARELY covered what happened in Kansas when over 900,000 voters voted to tell the GQP to go stuff it with their woman/little girl-hating anti abortion crapola. What, 900,000 voters who of course weren't blue voters wasn't enough to send some kind of message to fetus--and let the mother die with that fetus lovers crowd--down in deep, blood red Kansas?

What, a MILLION voters accidental stumbled out of their homes in BLOOD red Kansas to vote against mostly white, reich-winged males who feel free to get all the abortions they want their mistresses, wives, side-chicks to have, yet forcing other women to bloody well have their baby, then fuck you if a rape/incest baby's born to a 10 year old thanks to her dad's incestuous rape/impregnation of said 10 year old.

More people turned out than in any primary in Kansas history — and that could happen elsewhere, too.

By Rani Molla@ranimolla Aug 3, 2022, 4:50pm EDT


On Tuesday, an unprecedented number of Kansans voted against a constitutional amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to end abortion protections. That’s a big win for women’s rights, but the outcome also carries major implications for elections nationwide this November. It’s especially true in those states where abortion rights are on the ballot after the overturning of Roe Vs. Wade and where Democrats are seeking to stay in power.

Contrary to what some conservatives had thought, abortion is an issue that can mobilize voters.

More than 900,000 Kansans showed up to the polls to vote on the state’s abortion referendum. That’s the biggest turnout for a primary election in the state’s history, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. That number is closer to what we’d expect to see in a general election turnout, which is always vastly higher than primaries. And it suggests we could also see high turnout in upcoming primaries where abortion is on the docket.

More Kansans voted on the abortion referendum than in any primary election in Kansas history


As for MOST of this bogus ass polling, it's mostly slanted right against Dems and run by mostly right-wingers.


The Meiselas Brothers from Midas Touch and Tom Bonier who keep me sane.

Link to tweet

[DestinyIsles]

5. The polls also said Biden was going to get over 350 electoral votes

And 2018 we were suppose to win Senate and governor race in Florida , of course both of which didn’t happen.So polls are not predictive of anything.

[Better Days Ahoy]

7. This 100%

Polls are an industry that churns its own income by creating an unnecessary and often unproductive need.
If they could get paid by shouting "Fire" in a crowded theater, I imagine that also would become an income stream.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. Forget the poills, go vote

Link to tweet

[Midnight Writer]

9. I can't change the polls, but I can cast my ballot.