There is no Republican held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2024 that Democrats will win.

[nkpolitics1212]

FL(Scott-R) 2022 Election Results, Democrats lost every statewide elected office by landslide margin.
IN(OPEN Braun-R) red state. Braun is on the ballot for Governor.
MS(Wicker-R) red state.
MO(Hawley-R) red state.
NE(Fischer and whoever replaces Sasse) red state.
ND(Cramer-R) red state.
TN(Blackburn-R) red state.
UT(Romney-R) appeals to the McMullin voters.
WY(Barrasso-R) red state.
TX(Cruz-R) Julian Castro since he does not currently hold any political office.
TX is the only Republican US Senate seat up for re-election in 2024 that can flip if Castro is the Democratic Nominee.

[GreenWave]

1. As things currently stand.

A lot can happen in two years.

e.g. insurrectionists ratting on Hee Hawley and Cruz, among others.

[magicarpet]

2. 2024 is a tough year for Dems in US Senate seats to defend.

In 2024 we defend 23 US Senate seats,.. ReThugs only 11.
2024 is not kind to Dems for senate races.

~~~~~~~

(snip)

Overall, Democrats are defending 23 seats in 2024 (including Maine and Vermont, held by independents who caucus with Democrats), while Republicans are defending just 11. That includes the likely November 2024 special election in Nebraska after Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) resigns to become president of the University of Florida. We’ve included that race in Map 1.

Map link,..





You can now see the vital importance of whether Democrats are just at 50 seats, or whether they are at 51. Even given the Republicans’ re-emerging problem of nominating weak candidates in winnable races — a problem that bedeviled the party in 2010, 2012, and, it must be said, 2022 — you’d think, at a bare minimum, Republicans should be able to flip at least a single seat next cycle. That would be all it would take to win the Senate if they flip Georgia next month. But if Warnock holds, the Republicans will need 2 flips to win the Senate. Just based on the map itself, that seems likelier than not, but it’s harder to just pencil it in as happening. Democrats did better than expected last week, and despite a very tough map, maybe they’ll do so again.

(end snip, more at link below...)

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ga-runoff-is-the-opening-battle-of-the-2024-senate-cycle/

[nevergiveup]

3. Arizona, Nevada and West Virginia will be really tough.

[moose65]

4. Good grief

Two years is an eternity in politics. Who knows what will happen in the next two years?

Also, never underestimate the Republicans' ability to nominate truly abysmal candidates. We would never have thought that Doug Jones would have won an Alabama Senate election either, but he did. Sometimes a campaign implodes on its own, and there has to be someone else to vote for. Let's not give the store away already.

Sheesh. Do we have to start worrying about 2024 already??