Democrats need to have 54 US Senate seats after 2022 to overcome losses in-

[nkpolitics1212]

AZ(Sinema-D) and WV(Manchin-D) and make sure Democrats remain in the majority after 2024.

In 2024, Democrats are going to hold onto-
1)CA(Feinstein-D or Breed-D)
2)CT(Murphy-D)
3)DE(Carper-D or Blunt Rochester-D)
4)HI(Hirono-D or Gabbard-D)
5)ME(King-I/D or Golden-D)
6)MD(Cardin-D or J. Sarbanes-D)
7)MA(Warren-D)
8)MI(Stabenow-D)
9)MN(Klobuchar-D)
10)NV(Rosen-D)
11)NJ(Menendez-D)
12)NM(Heinrich-D)
13)NY(Gillibrand-D)
14)PA(Casey-D)
15)RI(Whitehouse-D)
16)VT(Sanders-I/D or Donovan-D)
17)VA(Kaine-D)
18)WA(Cantwell-D)
19)WI(Baldwin-D)
Democrats have a 50 percent chance of winning-
AZ(Sinema-D) Democrats need to make a top tier Democrat challenges and defeats Sinema-D in the Democratic Primary. Former Phoenix Mayor and current 9th AZ US Representative Greg Stanton-D.
MT(Tester-D) has narrowly defeated top tier Republican challengers in 2012(Rehberg-R) and 2018(Rosendale-R).
OH(Brown-D) has won re-election in 2012 and 2018 by a 6 percent margin.
WV(Manchin-D) is a lost cause.
Democrats need to have a top tier candidate to challenge and defeat Sinema-D in the Democratic primary- Greg Stanton- former Phoenix mayor and current AZ-9th CD US Representative.
MT(Tester-D) and OH(Brown-D) will get re-elected by a narrow margin.
In 2022 Democrats need to win-
37)VT(Leahy-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Jackson-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)

[ColinC]

1. For pickups Cookpolitical has OH and FL as lean R, with WI, NC and PA as tossups

AZ, GA, NH and NV are all lean D. If things are favorable next year, maybe we can win as many as 5 Senate seats give or take depending on how the solid seats may change odds in the future. I would imagine that would be enough to finally kill the fillibuster.