FYI: Arithmetic update Hillary Group

[Firebrand Gary]

Hillary has a total of 1,761 Delegates right this very moment, she needs 2383 to secure the nomination. Let's be impossibly generous to Senator Sanders and say that he will get half of the delegates between now and the Kentucky primary on May 17th. (These are all states that Hillary is likely to landslide.)

New York
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Indiana
Guam
West Virginia
Kentucky

But let's say that he get's 50% of the votes, Hillary get's the other 50% which is roughly 478 delegates, it put's Secretary Clinton at 2239 delegates. Presuming the fairytale, Hillary would only need 144 more delegates to secure the nomination, that's with the impossible for Sander's. I think Hillary's is only going to need 75 delegates or so come May 17th.

So when I hear the ridiculous assertion that this will be decided at the convention because like Trump, Hillary will not have enough, I laugh my ass off. By contrast, here's the numbers for 2008.

2118 delegates needed to win the 2008 democratic primary.

Senator Obama 1766.5 Pledged Delegates, 463 Super Delegates. TOTAL 2229.5
Senator Clinton 1639.5, 257 Super Delegates. TOTAL 1896.5

[Cha]

1. Thank you for this, Gary~

Indiana? Is that a closed Dem primary?

[Firebrand Gary]

2. Hiya Cha!

I think Indiana is open. Most pollsters are not even bothering with the state, as HRC will nearly have the nomination locked up by then.

[Cha]

3. I hope so.. I want a secure lock!

[LiberalFighter]

9. Based on Nate Silver's "The States That Look Like The Democratic Party"

Indiana will probably go 10-15+ for Sanders.

There is suppose to be a poll in about a week in Indiana.

But based on the math, Sanders is out. Hillary would have to get less than 44% of the remaining pledged delegates for Sanders to make it.

[LiberalFighter]

10. Indiana is a closed primary.

[BlueCaliDem]

4. I really like math now. :-)

[Cha]

5. #FeeltheMath~

MADem

BlueCali~

[BlueCaliDem]

6. Nice, Cha! Love the laughing-to-tears Hillary meme, too!

Mahalo, Cha, for always brightening up the threads and putting smiles on faces.

[Cha]

8. Thank you, that is so sweet of you! Backatcha!

My internet went down so I couldn't respond until now~

BlueCali

[BlueCaliDem]

12. Haha! I just got online myself! We're spiritually connected, Cha!

[BainsBane]

7. She only needs about 31% of the remaining delegates to win

Of course she'll get them. I also think the Sanders campaign knows she will and that they are keeping the campaign going for financial reasons.

[SharonClark]

11. K&R

[George II]

13. Basically Clinton needs less than 44% of the remaining pledged delegates...

...for a pledged delegate majority.

BUT, she only needs 32% of all remaining delegates for a delegate majority.

[LiberalFighter]

14. Based on current available polls...

By Indiana's primary, Hillary should have about 1,675 pledged delegates. Automatic delegates makes it about 2,156.
Sanders would be 1,360 (1,399)

She should get at least 37 of the 83 delegates in Indiana making it 1,712 (2,193).
Sanders should be about 1,406 (1,445)

Clinton would need 314 of the remaining 933 delegates at this point. Sanders would need 518.

Also, at this time there are about 193 automatic delegates still up for grabs if the others don't switch. More of them are likely to go for Clinton. About 96 of them are from states that have already had their primaries.


Based on current polling data Clinton is likely to receive the following delegates:

10 - WV
32 - KY
254 - CA
9 - MT
80 - NJ
20 - NM
16 - SD (This might be a tad high)
421 - Total for Clinton putting her at 2,133 out of 2026 needed of pledged delegates. 2,614 out 2,383 for automatic delegates included.

There is no polling data currently for Oregon (likely net for Sanders), Virgin Islands, North Dakota, Puerto Rico, and DC. (173 delegates). At best Sanders gets 90 delegates from this group.

[NurseJackie]

15. Bernie will NOT be the nominee. (I guarantee it!)

[LiberalFighter]

16. Only if he gets all of Hillary's delegates nullified.

And they change the definition of majority votes.

[NurseJackie]

17. I suppose that's a possibility.

[bluestateguy]

18. Is Kentucky really safe?

Not many black voters there, and a lot of poor white folk. I don't know.