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still_one

(92,219 posts)
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 09:35 PM Apr 2016

So now some are pushing this "supposed" new New York Poll which has Hillary only ahead

by +6 points.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/17/1516577/-Gravis-New-York-Poll-Shows-Sanders-Within-Six-53-47-Among-Likely-Democratic-Voters

Funny that some of the cheerleaders seem to leave out some details:

The polling happened April 5-6,

This is April 18.

The last paragraph in the link also puts some things in perspective:

So it’s an automated telephone (landlines? mobiles?) poll from a C-rated pollster (per 538, not that they’re infallible). That’s a decent sample size of 1134 likely Democratic voters, though. Not sure how to read this one, and it appears the first in the field published poll for New York from this pollster, so we don’t even have anything prior for comparison. Just another poll to throw on the pile, I guess.

However, what really puts things in perspective is the polls for New York that have come out subsequent to that:

April 13 - April 15

CBS News/YouGov
Hillary 53, Sanders 43 Hillary +10

April 10 - April 13

NBC for NY/WSJ/Marist
Hillary 57, Sanders 40 Hillary +17

April 6 - April 11
Siena
Hillary 52, Sanders 42 Hillary +10

April 6 - April 11
Quinnipiac
Hillary 53, Sanders 40 Hillary +13

April 6 - April 10
NBS/WSJ/Marist
Hillary 55, Sanders 41 Hillary +14

April 7 - April 10
PPP
Hillary 51, Sanders 40 Hillary +11

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

So while some seem to be puffing up this poll, it is only fair to put everything in context isn't it?



35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
So now some are pushing this "supposed" new New York Poll which has Hillary only ahead (Original Post) still_one Apr 2016 OP
Gotta get the building materials for their strawmen somewhere. IamMab Apr 2016 #1
Up by 6 is still up shenmue Apr 2016 #2
That is also a good way to look at it, but I just wanted to put it into perspective still_one Apr 2016 #5
Okay shenmue Apr 2016 #6
I am guessing a 6 point victory by Clinton in NY. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #8
I'm betting 14 point personally metroins Apr 2016 #27
The closed primary will slam the door on Sanders winning NY, which is critical for his campaign. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #28
You are being way too pessimistic jsmirman Apr 2016 #30
I've been told that 12 points is practically a tie by a Berner sweetloukillbot Apr 2016 #22
The new poll, if it was the one I saw here... Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #3
Hey Buzz rock Apr 2016 #15
There were accusations that it was anti-Semitic... Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #17
Yeah, Incidentally I had NO problem at all in interpreting your message rock Apr 2016 #23
Icon, schmicon. Glad you're here. nt kstewart33 Apr 2016 #31
That is not always the sentiment, but thank you! Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #32
Hillary still has a double digit lead and will be Bernie by double digits! leftofcool Apr 2016 #4
Let them raise their hopes and get complacent. SaschaHM Apr 2016 #7
If thats the Gravis poll, ok, I'll go with PP Iliyah Apr 2016 #9
Can't win if your opponent stays above 50%. It's simple math. But the poll is bogus anyway. George II Apr 2016 #10
It is probably an outlier still_one Apr 2016 #12
glimmer of hope enid602 Apr 2016 #26
They're using it to grift on MattP Apr 2016 #11
yeah, looks that way, and that is SOP in regard to politics still_one Apr 2016 #14
Is this the pole results asking for a fifty dollar donation? Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #13
Gosh, I just saw the email from his campaign touting the Gravis poll Iliyah Apr 2016 #16
The State of Denial has no delegates. nt DesertRat Apr 2016 #18
Gravis? Nuff said. book_worm Apr 2016 #19
True. ismnotwasm Apr 2016 #20
Outliar hrc guy Apr 2016 #21
Pun of the day! LOL! Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #25
Perfect! pandr32 Apr 2016 #34
"Fair and balanced" is NOT the BSers forte. Cut and paste, Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #24
Well then...I guess we should work harder to get out the vote tomorrow!!!! Walk away Apr 2016 #29
Let them! The "burn" will be worse pandr32 Apr 2016 #33
Headline -- Koinos Apr 2016 #35
 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
8. I am guessing a 6 point victory by Clinton in NY.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 09:56 PM
Apr 2016

The difference between 12 points and 6 points is significant in terms of delegates awarded in NY, but 6 point win is plenty to make life miserable for Sanders as we move forward.

metroins

(2,550 posts)
27. I'm betting 14 point personally
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:30 AM
Apr 2016

And I'm not just trying to be a HRC fan.

The closed primary for so long really helps her.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
28. The closed primary will slam the door on Sanders winning NY, which is critical for his campaign.
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:43 AM
Apr 2016

Now, he's simply trying to avoid a big, double digit loss because, if that happens, he will need to win CA by 5+ as well as landslide wins in May and June.

sweetloukillbot

(11,029 posts)
22. I've been told that 12 points is practically a tie by a Berner
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 12:03 AM
Apr 2016

The logic was so convoluted, but it almost amounted to "it was within the margin of error!"

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
3. The new poll, if it was the one I saw here...
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 09:48 PM
Apr 2016

...was a robocall setup with limited answers. It is only for "likely voters" and not well screened for registration. So, non-registered voters or those not registered as Dems were polled.

The CBS/YouGov poll figured out the peculiarities of this year after Michigan. They have been very close since.

I have no doubt that the gap will close to single digits by Tuesday, but the 6 point spread at this time is unlikely.

rock

(13,218 posts)
15. Hey Buzz
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 10:27 PM
Apr 2016

I see you changed your sig icon to something completely secular. That's probably a good idea, as you seemed to be upsetting some people. Anyways I support and applaud your decision. Here's to ya

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
17. There were accusations that it was anti-Semitic...
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 10:55 PM
Apr 2016

...AND anti-Catholic. It may have been offensive to both, but my intent was a thumb in the eye of those who had elevated Sanders to sainthood.

However, I was finding that some were offended simply because it was overly insensitive. So, I killed it.

rock

(13,218 posts)
23. Yeah, Incidentally I had NO problem at all in interpreting your message
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:04 AM
Apr 2016

But people do have a diverse thickness of skin.

SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
7. Let them raise their hopes and get complacent.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 09:55 PM
Apr 2016

It will make the sting of his upcoming double digit loss on Tuesday hurt even more.

enid602

(8,620 posts)
26. glimmer of hope
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:30 AM
Apr 2016

It's amazing how the BSers were clinging to the +06 point poll yesterday, as if it were some glint of hope. It was pretty pathetic. They posted and cross-posted the hell out of it, despite the fact that it was old and was never posted on realpolitics.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
16. Gosh, I just saw the email from his campaign touting the Gravis poll
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 10:50 PM
Apr 2016

and asking for money. WOW. Fund raising off of cherry picking Clooney's statement and now this. Just WOW.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
24. "Fair and balanced" is NOT the BSers forte. Cut and paste,
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:14 AM
Apr 2016

recycle outdated material, etc. etc. They're rowing desperately to keep theirs and their on-line followers' spirits up.

Tough rowing...

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
29. Well then...I guess we should work harder to get out the vote tomorrow!!!!
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 08:44 AM
Apr 2016

We can always use some incentive. I doubt that a majority of NY Democrats are going want a Socialist as our next POTUS!

Koinos

(2,792 posts)
35. Headline --
Mon Apr 18, 2016, 01:05 PM
Apr 2016

"Poll from Wishful Thinking University Predicts NY Landslide for Bernie Sanders: The College Where Tuition and Bad Advice Are Always Free"

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