Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumSo now some are pushing this "supposed" new New York Poll which has Hillary only ahead
by +6 points.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/17/1516577/-Gravis-New-York-Poll-Shows-Sanders-Within-Six-53-47-Among-Likely-Democratic-Voters
Funny that some of the cheerleaders seem to leave out some details:
The polling happened April 5-6,
This is April 18.
The last paragraph in the link also puts some things in perspective:
So its an automated telephone (landlines? mobiles?) poll from a C-rated pollster (per 538, not that theyre infallible). Thats a decent sample size of 1134 likely Democratic voters, though. Not sure how to read this one, and it appears the first in the field published poll for New York from this pollster, so we dont even have anything prior for comparison. Just another poll to throw on the pile, I guess.
However, what really puts things in perspective is the polls for New York that have come out subsequent to that:
April 13 - April 15
CBS News/YouGov
Hillary 53, Sanders 43 Hillary +10
April 10 - April 13
NBC for NY/WSJ/Marist
Hillary 57, Sanders 40 Hillary +17
April 6 - April 11
Siena
Hillary 52, Sanders 42 Hillary +10
April 6 - April 11
Quinnipiac
Hillary 53, Sanders 40 Hillary +13
April 6 - April 10
NBS/WSJ/Marist
Hillary 55, Sanders 41 Hillary +14
April 7 - April 10
PPP
Hillary 51, Sanders 40 Hillary +11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html
So while some seem to be puffing up this poll, it is only fair to put everything in context isn't it?
IamMab
(1,359 posts)shenmue
(38,506 posts)still_one
(92,219 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)The difference between 12 points and 6 points is significant in terms of delegates awarded in NY, but 6 point win is plenty to make life miserable for Sanders as we move forward.
metroins
(2,550 posts)And I'm not just trying to be a HRC fan.
The closed primary for so long really helps her.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Now, he's simply trying to avoid a big, double digit loss because, if that happens, he will need to win CA by 5+ as well as landslide wins in May and June.
jsmirman
(4,507 posts)I've been out on these streets. It's not going to be 6.
sweetloukillbot
(11,029 posts)The logic was so convoluted, but it almost amounted to "it was within the margin of error!"
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)...was a robocall setup with limited answers. It is only for "likely voters" and not well screened for registration. So, non-registered voters or those not registered as Dems were polled.
The CBS/YouGov poll figured out the peculiarities of this year after Michigan. They have been very close since.
I have no doubt that the gap will close to single digits by Tuesday, but the 6 point spread at this time is unlikely.
I see you changed your sig icon to something completely secular. That's probably a good idea, as you seemed to be upsetting some people. Anyways I support and applaud your decision. Here's to ya
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)...AND anti-Catholic. It may have been offensive to both, but my intent was a thumb in the eye of those who had elevated Sanders to sainthood.
However, I was finding that some were offended simply because it was overly insensitive. So, I killed it.
rock
(13,218 posts)But people do have a diverse thickness of skin.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)It will make the sting of his upcoming double digit loss on Tuesday hurt even more.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)HRC will win double I have no doubt on that!
George II
(67,782 posts)still_one
(92,219 posts)enid602
(8,620 posts)It's amazing how the BSers were clinging to the +06 point poll yesterday, as if it were some glint of hope. It was pretty pathetic. They posted and cross-posted the hell out of it, despite the fact that it was old and was never posted on realpolitics.
MattP
(3,304 posts)Send money now!!!!
still_one
(92,219 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)and asking for money. WOW. Fund raising off of cherry picking Clooney's statement and now this. Just WOW.
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)Besides it's a very old poll.
ismnotwasm
(41,989 posts)I will be so glad when it's all over.
hrc guy
(73 posts)Misspelling deliberate.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)pandr32
(11,588 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)recycle outdated material, etc. etc. They're rowing desperately to keep theirs and their on-line followers' spirits up.
Tough rowing...
Walk away
(9,494 posts)We can always use some incentive. I doubt that a majority of NY Democrats are going want a Socialist as our next POTUS!
pandr32
(11,588 posts)Koinos
(2,792 posts)"Poll from Wishful Thinking University Predicts NY Landslide for Bernie Sanders: The College Where Tuition and Bad Advice Are Always Free"