BS Set To Lose Indiana Next Week

[stopbush]

Hillary has an average lead of 4 points in all the polls and trails in none of the polls.

Looks like another Sanders loss on the horizon, even if the margin is small.

On edit: 92 delegates at stake. I understand the rules for alloting delegates in Indiana are complex.

[Cha]

1. Hope so.. don' t like

to jinx it, though.

[RandySF]

2. I really think the delegate count will be close to 50/50

It's setting up like 2008.

[DemonGoddess]

3. I'm crossing my fingers and voting Tuesday for Hillary!

[stopbush]

4. The IPFW poll from yesterday has Hill up 54 - 41.

She's got the monentum heading into Tuesday.

[yallerdawg]

5. We've already got 7 superdelegates!

"Too close to call" will be a victory for our Democratic nominee!

And, you know, regardless of the "polling" it will be "too close to call" - it's Hillary!

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IN-D

[BlueMTexpat]

6. I hope so ... but it's an open

primary so polls of Democrats are not necessarily going to reflect the reality if the Indies want to throw a monkey wrench into the works as they have in other states.

Fingers VERY crossed!

[stopbush]

8. Can voters cross party lines in a presidential primary in Indiana?

Found this:

Registration:
Indiana has nonpartisan registration. There is no option to affiliate with a political party on the voter registration form.


Details of voting in congressional and state primary elections:
Affiliation with a party is not required to vote in primaries. However, voters can only choose the primary ballot of the party who recieved a majority of their votes in the previous general election, and voter records are kept as public information.
If a voter did not vote in the last general election, they must "intend to vote for the majority of the nominees on their desired party's ballot."
Voters can be challenged by another eligible voter on suspicion of perjury.
This system is an attempt to get voters to vote along party lines, but is not easily enforceable.

[LiberalFighter]

10. I don't believe this law is followed explicitly.

Also, voting history is not included in the polling books.

[BlueMTexpat]

12. You found the same information that I did.

http://www.openprimaries.org/states_indiana

It's a little unclear, but if a person has voted mostly for GOPers before, that person will likely receive a GOP, rather than a Dem ballot. If it's a new voter, it sounds as if they can merely say that they intend to vote for the majority of nominees on _____ ballot to get a ballot for the party of their choice.

A question arises as to what happens if a voter simply votes for the party's Presidential candidate and no one else on the ballot, as happened more with Bernie voters in WI. Will those votes then be thrown out ... or what?

It is interesting that records of how individuals voted in a previous election are kept as public information, if I understood that correctly. That sounds like invading ballot secrecy to me and I am very surprised to see a condition like that - unless they mean simply that there are records of which party one voted for in the previous primary based on which ballot was handed out.

Bottom line as I see it: if you're a return voter, you likely can only vote in the primary of the party where you last voted. If you're a newbie, you can ask for either ballot. Of course, I could be wrong in my understanding ....

This is where Bernie's young voters who've never voted before may have an advantage.

I hope that someone from IN can explain this better.

[NuclearDem]

14. Indiana voter here.

Indiana is for all purposes an open primary. That rule about party-line votes is so obscure and specific that it's virtually unenforceable. The general election ballot has a straight-party option, but it's hardly mandatory.

If you vote absentee, you can request either the Democratic or Republican ballot. Likewise, at the polls, you can request a Democratic or Republican ballot. Your voting history is irrelevant as far as which ballot you can request.

[book_worm]

7. We'll see--polls aren't always accurate and this is an open primary state

but it really doesn't matter. Even if Sanders wins narrowly the delegates will be fairly evenly split.

[stopbush]

9. True, but another defeat for Sanders would have a

psychological effect on things.

[BootinUp]

11. Probably will be a low turnout, so could go either way imho

and the result is not going to be relevant anyways.

[LiberalFighter]

13. What I posted in another post about this.

Clinton did win Indiana 38-34 in 2008. The reason why I expect(ed) Indiana to go Sanders is because we have an open primary. But, Hillary has won more open primaries than Sanders.

Recent poll from 538 shows average of 48.8 - 41 favoring Clinton.

Indiana's polling hours are 6am to 6pm. That might be a factor too.


ANOTHER bit of information. Indiana only had 72 delegates in 2008. But because of the formula that the DNC uses to determine delegate allocation Indiana will have 83 delegates this year. In 2012 they had 96 delegates. The reason for the fluctuation is due to voter turnout for a Democratic candidate over a 3 election cycle.

Below shows the allocation of delegates in this election and the past 3. Allocation of delegates by Democratic voter turnout during those years is also at the congressional district level. This reflects how a weighting factor may give a state with comparable population a different delegate count.

Obama won Indiana in the 2008 general election which is the reason for the jump in delegates in 2012.

District * 2004 * 2008 * 2012 * 2016
CD1 -- - -- 6 -- -- 6 -- -- 10 -- -- 8
CD2 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
CD3 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD4 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD5 -- - -- 4 -- -- 4 -- --- 6 -- -- 7
CD6 -- - -- 5 -- -- 5 -- --- 6 -- -- 5
CD7 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 8 -- -- 8
CD8 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
CD9 -- - -- 5 -- -- 6 -- --- 7 -- -- 6
AtLarge -- 15 --- 16 ----- 11 -- -- 9
PLEO --- -- 9 -- -- 9 -- -- 22 -- - 18
Delegates -67 --- 72 -- -- 96 -- - 83