CA Poll: Bernie up with independents, but Hillary still holds sway
http://capitolweekly.net/hillary-bernie-independents-poll-california/
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But this group of new registrants is far smaller, only 16% of the number of likely voters. If that entire group were to vote, and favor Sanders by an 80%-to-20% margin, it would almost close the current gap. Our data admittedly a small sample shows Sanders leading Clinton in this group by 67%-27%.
That Sanders advantage could be blunted by any higher-than-expected turnout of African-American and Latino voters, where Clinton has a decided advantage.
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In our survey, one-third of NPP voters said they did not plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The remainder is evenly split between re-registering as Republicans or not casting a presidential vote.
That alone takes the NPP percentage under 20%.
Then there is the additional issue for NPP voters described in depth on this site last week the half of NPP voters who are Permanent Absentee Voters and must fill out and return a card to their County Clerk requesting the Democratic presidential ballot. As Paul Mitchell pointed out, the return rate has been anemic thus far. If half of these voters dont end up with a Democratic presidential ballot, the NPP percentage for that election falls to around 15%.
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