Could Hillary Clinton win Oregon on Tuesday?

[book_worm]

Like everyone else in Oregon, pollster John Horvick has watched as Bernie Sanders draws massive crowds by capitalizing on liberal dissatisfaction in this left-leaning state.

“It felt like this is Bernie Sanders country,” he said.

That’s why the latest poll results from his firm, DHM Research, were something of a surprise. Hillary Clinton led 48% to 33% , a gap much larger than the margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.

Oregon's primary is on Tuesday. In an interview in his light-filled loft office in Portland's trendy Pearl District, Horvick offered some potential caveats, but also reasons to think the poll is correct.

Now, some reasons to believe Clinton could pull off a victory here.

Oregon has a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats can vote, and Sanders hasn't won a closed primary yet in this campaign. Older voters are much more likely than their younger counterparts to be registered with a party, and they’re more likely to favor Clinton, giving her an edge.

In addition, Horvick’s team calculated a second set of numbers based on a potential turnout where young voters and new voters cast ballots in higher numbers than normal .

Even then, Clinton had a lead that exceeded the margin of error, 45% to 38%.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trailguide-05122016-could-hillary-clinton-win-oregon-on-tuesday-1463068933-htmlstory.html

Has HRC been campaigning in Oregon? It would be awesome if she could win a state that many think Bernie is a shoe-in to win.

[leftofcool]

1. She can win it and will likely win Kentucky as well.

[msongs]

2. the bernie crowd said on DU last night bernie will win 78% in Oregon. must be true if the bernie

crowd says so

[Lil Missy]

4. It is so!! I heard it on the DU!!

[Buzz cook]

3. Possible, not probable

Just like Washington, Oregon is dominated by one or two big cities. So as the I5 corridor goes so goes the rest of the state.

But it'd be nice.

[SaschaHM]

5. If Clinton wins Oregon and Kentucky, the BS'rs .....

are going to be insufferable in their poutrage. To be fair though, I'm going to be insufferable in my gloating. Should make for an interesting night.

[Fla Dem]

6. Good thing going for her; it's a closed primary. Had to register as Dem by 4/26.

No cross over Republican votes for Sanders like what happened in W Va.

[SharonClark]

7. Yes, and the NPPs have had months to register as Dems.

I'm wishing for a win but not hopeful of one.

[Demsrule86]

11. Oh...that is great news.

The Bernie people kept saying over 80,000 newly registered. I hope she wins big. I am sick of the primary. The Lolita article survived a jury...how? It should not even be posted there or anywhere.

[fleabiscuit]

8. Based in Oregon, very respected firm, knows Oregon. n/t

[Cha]

9. Did this poll account for all the newly registered Dems by the deadline?

Thanks book!

[Demsrule86]

10. I worry there is an operation chaos in the works

Why would thousands of voters change their registration at the end of the primary season?