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TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)
Sat May 21, 2016, 02:41 PM May 2016

"19% of the never Trump Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 18% would stay home"

I know this is almost a month old, but it's still worth revisiting. Trump needs nearly the entire GOP vote and a big turnout on the Republican side if he's going to win in November. If he gets the 60-80% this poll indicates, it ain't happening.

"Bombshell Poll: Nearly 20% Of Republicans Will Vote For Hillary Clinton If Trump Wins "

"The poll contained some numbers that should terrify Republicans. 40% of Republicans polled said that they would not support the party’s nominee if Donald Trump wins. 25% of the anti-Trump Republican vote would consider voting for a third party candidate. 19% of the never Trump Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 18% would stay home and not vote at all."

More....

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/25/bombshell-poll-20-republicans-vote-hillary-clinton-trump-wins.html

For comparison, the percentage of Clinton/Sanders voters polled who would stay home or vote Trump if Hillary is the nominee was 9%.

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
"19% of the never Trump Republicans would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 18% would stay home" (Original Post) TwilightZone May 2016 OP
Staying home or voting 3rd party is the same as voting for Hillary charlyvi May 2016 #1
Agreed. The percentage will drop over time. TwilightZone May 2016 #3
Good news for what its worth this early.nt BootinUp May 2016 #2
Yea and I keep hearing that T-rump is surging . . . Iliyah May 2016 #4
I'm it sure it won't be as high as 19% by November bluestateguy May 2016 #5
Shouldn't it be 19% of 40% of repubs would vote for her? Rose Siding May 2016 #6
Yes, the article headline does not specify the anti-Trump vote, but that's what it's based on. TwilightZone May 2016 #7

charlyvi

(6,537 posts)
1. Staying home or voting 3rd party is the same as voting for Hillary
Sat May 21, 2016, 02:47 PM
May 2016

So that's 40%. They will probably coalesce behind Trump by Nov though.

TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)
3. Agreed. The percentage will drop over time.
Sat May 21, 2016, 03:05 PM
May 2016

I still think it's kind of remarkable, even this early. Trump has managed to make them look not-quite-so monolithic.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
4. Yea and I keep hearing that T-rump is surging . . .
Sat May 21, 2016, 03:23 PM
May 2016

Then I ask myself with whom? KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
5. I'm it sure it won't be as high as 19% by November
Sat May 21, 2016, 03:45 PM
May 2016

People tell pollsters all kinds of things in the spring and summer, so expect that number to whittle down to 8-10% by Fall.

Rose Siding

(32,623 posts)
6. Shouldn't it be 19% of 40% of repubs would vote for her?
Sat May 21, 2016, 08:17 PM
May 2016

That's not 20 of all repubs. Weird way for them to right that.

TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)
7. Yes, the article headline does not specify the anti-Trump vote, but that's what it's based on.
Sat May 21, 2016, 08:34 PM
May 2016

At the time, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump were all still in the race, so those were the three options on the right.

When supporters of all three were asked, 11% would vote for Clinton.

Of the ones not supporting Trump (40%), 19% of those said they would vote Clinton.

There's a lot of data - I had no idea that they asked so many questions.

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