Nate Silver on the Democratic Race. Start from bottom up! (HRC GP)

[Her Sister]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 22h22 hours ago
On 2) — the race is not at a state of equilibrium. One party's nomination is still being contested and the other isn't. Tricky time to poll.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 22h22 hours ago
On 1) -- clearly *not* cherry-picking to say Trump has gained on Clinton. It's happened in good polls, bad polls, state polls, nat'l polls.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 22h22 hours ago
Two questions to ask from polls:
1) Has Trump gained ground on Clinton? (Clearly he has.)
2) Is this the "new normal"? (We don't know yet.)
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 21
What if the answer to the Fermi paradox is that no civilization survived past developing social media? http://bit.ly/1NDKk1I
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 20
Help this band A/B test their songs and/or their facial hair.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
6b/ But this being a year when many precedents have been violated, worth considering these differences in case we're "surprised" later.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
6/ Probably everyone kisses and makes up in June. There's a strong historical track record of parties reconciling their differences.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
5b/ There's always some of this—e.g., arguments over popular vote in '08—but the Sanders claims have been more wide-ranging and "creative".
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
5/ Sanders and surrogates have often called the legitimacy of HRC's lead into question, by suggesting system was rigged in Clinton's favor.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
4b/ Flip-side to this is that Sanders can argue he's bringing new voters into the Democratic fold instead of slicing-and-dicing the base.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
4/ Sanders voters don't have a lot of loyalty to the Democratic Party (and many aren't Democrats) whereas both Clinton and Obama voters did.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
3/ 2016 is more one-sided. Team Sanders has been antagonistic toward Clinton. Team Clinton has played prevent defense, avoided engagement.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
2/ Bigger epistemological gap. Clinton and Obama were both liberal policy wonks and incrementalists. Sanders is calling for a "revolution".
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
Nate Silver Retweeted
1/ This is a good starting point -- 2008 was much nastier than 2016 overall -- but also some important differences. https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/733411800201322496 …
Nate Silver added,
This Tweet is unavailable.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
Nate Silver Retweeted Kaili Joy Gray
Subtract then re-add the superdelegates then mutiply that by how much birds like him.

Nate Silver added,
Kaili Joy Gray @KailiJoy
Jeff Weaver says on NPR that Sanders needing to win 68 percent of remaining delegates is a "media narrative."
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
Both these things can be true:
1. Sanders's performance has been really impressive.
2. The Democratic primary hasn't really been close.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 May 19
Clinton's popular vote margin over Sanders (12.7%) is similar to the margins by which Eisenhower beat Stevenson in '52 and '56.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538

[Her Sister]

1. On Pres. Obama:

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 18h18 hours ago
And since Obama's overall approval ratings aren't bad, Clinton can deploy him more aggressively than if he were sitting at 41% or something.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 18h18 hours ago
Obama has mostly kept his powder dry, but he can be a big force for party unity later on.
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Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 18h18 hours ago
An overlooked (if not terribly surprising) data point is that ~75% of Sanders supporters have a favorable view of President Obama.
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[DLCWIdem]

10. I love the Bernie math video

[riversedge]

2. In less words--National polls until the Dems have their nominee (Hill) are worthless. Big money

for the cable pundits though.

[beachbum bob]

3. the media wants to prolong the discourse = more money

big reason why sanders never has had the national vetting of his record, the people he supports, the people who support him...his flipflopping on just about everything....anti war...really? votes for war and defense budgets....especially if benefits his circle....what do we know about his circle??? Nothing...

media been playing the american people for fools for years

[still_one]

4. I have been saying that, and also would argue that they are less than useful when it is a two person

race if they don't correlate with the state polls

[fleabiscuit]

9. Yes. When voters start coalescing around the Democratic party Dump is going to get a drubbing. n/t

[Lucinda]

11. Yip.

[SunSeeker]

5. Good analysis by Nate.

"Sanders voters don't have a lot of loyalty to the Democratic Party (and many aren't Democrats) whereas both Clinton and Obama voters did."

This is the reason there is so much hate on the Sanders side, not only for Hillary but the whole Democratic Party.

[Stand and Fight]

6. Thanks for posting, but...

I think your post would get more action if the formatting was cleaned up. As it stand right now it is extraordinarily difficult to read from the top down. Asking readers to read from the bottom up is even worse. There's a lot of needless things in the post that serve only to clutter up the reading space and make it difficult to concentrate. Just my two cents.

Thanks nonetheless.

[Her Sister]

7. Yes I know! Thinking of doing that! Maybe later!

Thanks! lol!

Kinda laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazy at the moment!

In the meantime maybe it's easier to go to the twitter link where there are colors that might make it easier to read!

[Stand and Fight]

8. Okay. Will do. Thanks, HS!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. Nate, you are NOT a political scientist. I am! The fact that you are failing to report that GE polls

mean shit right now means you lack integrity on this issue! Why? Because you should know damn well that the Democrats have not wrapped up their nomination process and so obviously since the ReThugs are coming together and are united, there is going to be a convergence in the polls. Once HRC becomes the nominee, those numbers will undoubtedly change. My frustration is not that these meaningless polls are being reported, no. My frustration is that YOU of all people, should be explaining that they are meaningless. And YOU and your team should be shutting down any punditry talking point that gives credence to these meaningless polls!

(End Rant!)