The simple reason why Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton polls tightened

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

When it comes to a presidential general election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, two things should be clear this week:

1. The race has tightened.

2. The reason it has tightened is because Republicans have come around to Trump, while Clinton is still dealing with a divided party.

Ever since Trump essentially locked up the Republican nomination three weeks ago, his polling position has improved relative to Clinton.

Days before the Indiana primary, a national CNN/ORC poll showed Clinton up 13 points over Trump. Monday morning two different polls from NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post showed the race within the margin of error. In fact, the ABC News poll showed Trump up by 2 percentage points.

The NBC poll found that Republicans are now supporting Trump over Clinton by 86 percent to 6 percent. This is an improvement from a month ago when that margin was just 72 percent to 13 percent.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-simple-reason-why-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-polls-tightened/ar-BBtmGZ1?li=BBnb7Kz

[riversedge]

1. As others have pointed out--until the Democrats have their nominee-the 3-way

race is not going to poll anywhere near meaningful.


In addition--his far out is not good either.

[sarae]

2. I think another reason might be that

the polls aren't taking into account the new voters being pulled into the Dem party. I'm not talking about previously independent voters, but new Hispanic voters, who are signing up in droves. It's something Maria Teresa Kumar mentioned on AMJoy this weekend (she's with Voto Latino). She said the polls are likely underestimating the amount of anti-Trump people newly motivated to vote.

[texstad79]

3. Haven't seen the crosstabs

Its very likely they are polling with bad demographic models to drive the narrative of a tightening race. National polls are useless anyway, because we don't have a national election.