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SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:38 PM Jun 2016

It's Close in California: Clinton 49%, Sanders 47% NBC/WSJ/Marist

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141

Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-point lead over Bernie Sanders in California ahead of the state's June 7 primary, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

Clinton gets support from 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, while Sanders gets 47 percent, which is within the survey's margin of error.




The poll have Bernie winning Latinos so I'm a bit skeptical. Whatever the outcome though, there is no Bernie landslide in the cards (there never was). Hillary also leads in early voting.
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beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
1. The poll doesn't reflect the impact of all the dissing of gov brown by bernie
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:44 PM
Jun 2016

Jane and his supporters....as well as many sanders voters screwing ballots with early voting....I don't expect this to close ...and a week ago I thought a 5 or 6% loss for Hillary was going to be ok. Consider the money and time Bernie has spent...not I think a clear victory as sander supporters attacking gov brown is pissing many California voters off

 

CrowCityDem

(2,348 posts)
4. I don't quite believe Bernie being ahead among Latinos...
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:48 PM
Jun 2016

but I do think the early voting edge is the important part. If the poll numbers are growing closer, that might not actually mean as much if some of those voters are already banked as Hillary votes.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
5. Soon and very soon, California by even 100% for Sanders is still a loss for Sanders.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:48 PM
Jun 2016

The landslide idea is not going to happen just as the super delegates are not going to flip to Sanders but the ones he has may flip to Hillary.

FloridaBlues

(4,008 posts)
7. He's lived there for several weeks not surprised. But leading with Latinos ?
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 06:16 PM
Jun 2016

I'm glad she spending the rest of the time in Cali. I also think she will win but don't know what to make of these polls.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
8. Horse race math.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 06:18 PM
Jun 2016

We'll have to wait and see...but Bernie winning Latinos seems, well, very unrealistic.

I wonder if they're choosing a close result just to make sure you watch that night, but they can still say they were accurate if it's a Clinton win since they did project that, after all...

SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
10. Yeah, I'm guessing that they accounted for race, but not age.
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 06:34 PM
Jun 2016

I'm going to assume that the sample was mostly young latinos and not older ones.

Lord Magus

(1,999 posts)
11. Yeah, Trump secured early enough for his voters to change registration to undeclared.
Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:09 AM
Jun 2016

I don't know how many of them will actually put in the effort to screw with the Democratic primary, but we already saw from West Virginia that some will.

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