Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton’s Got This (Hillary Clinton Group)
HER favorable ratings have fallen. The investigation into her private email server is tightening. Bernie Sanders is drawing huge crowds. Joe Biden is considering one last White House bid. Al Gore has advisers who have friends whove told reporters that they might have heard about conversations spitballing about a possible Gore run.
And as for the pundits like, yes, yours truly who once said that Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, well, did we expect that Sanders would top a New Hampshire poll? (Truthfully, I did not.) Did we even see the email scandal coming? (Well, I expected something Clintonesque, but the specifics have surprised.) For that matter, did we foresee Donald Trumps swift ascent on the G.O.P. side of things? (No, I didnt think he would run at all.)
So with that kind of track record from the soothsaying profession, isnt it possible that our entire Hillary Clinton is the inevitable Democratic nominee thesis is about to become a casualty of State Department scandal, Clinton fatigue, her weaknesses as a campaigner, the populist temper of the times?
Many things are possible. But to this soothsayer, it feels like a good time to double down on that thesis instead, and make my prediction as firm and wiggle-free as possible: Hillarys going to win the nomination, and it isnt going to be particularly close.
First and foremost, shes going to win the nomination because she only needs Democratic votes to win it, and Democrats still like Hillary a lot. She looks today like a somewhat weaker general-election candidate than she did six months ago, and the Sanders surge has been fun to watch. But mostly hes just been consolidating the partys natural anti-Clinton bloc white, well-educated, and quite left-wing rather than making deep inroads into her national support.
That anti-Hillary bloc is overrepresented in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where Sanders poll numbers are particularly robust, but it isnt the basis for a winning coalition; not even close. For that, you would need a candidate capable of performing the same feat as Obama in 2008, and winning not only white liberals but a large share of minority support (an overwhelming share of the black vote, in his case) as well.
And none of Hillarys possible rivals, real and hypothetical, are well-suited to building that kind of coalition. Sanders is already enduring left-on-left clashes with Black Lives Matter activists, the hapless Martin OMalley is associated with Baltimore policing, and given the front-runners pre-commitment to a voting rights push and criminal justice reform, its not clear what Biden would offer minority voters to make them reconsider their strong support for Clinton.
Any other path to the nomination, meanwhile, requires persuading white Democratic women to turn on Hillary en masse an even more unlikely scenario, its fair to say, than imagining Biden as a Rainbow Coalition candidate.
more
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/ross-douthat-hillarys-got-this.html
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Winners have not determined the winner. Hillary is not running a campaign of playing catchup, she is running her campaign and explaining her policies. She does not need to run out of gas this early in the campaign, then there will not be any excitement on election day.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)would be subject to outright bullsh*t. HRC happens to be the Democratic Party's front runner and will win the primary. HRC will probably run against GOP Bush. And ya'think its ugly now, it's going to be 1 trillion times worst.
Control-Z
(15,682 posts)"HRC is tough and honestly anyone who is running against the GOP mean machine"
Or the Sanders super mean" bern" machine.
It's like the fringy left has joined forces with the fringy right mean machine.
They are both so gawd damned mean. Maybe they are all GOP to begin with???
Gothmog
(145,291 posts)HRC will be the Democratic nominee unless something really strange happens
SunSeeker
(51,563 posts)Cha
(297,275 posts)this time out.. and that's an excellent thing.
I love that Obama was elected President but now I want Hillary to Win!
Kath1
(4,309 posts)Right on! Same here!
She will make an excellent President and will build on the progress we have made during the Obama administration!
Cha
(297,275 posts)Exactly.. that will be so awesome and historic!
riversedge
(70,239 posts)she is in this for the gold (Oval office).
riversedge
(70,239 posts)Article lays out some of her problems but gives hope in the closing
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/15/email-setbacks-bernie-sanders-but-hillary-clinton-still-favorite
Hillary Clinton still Democrats prize fighter despite setbacks and Sanders
Partys safe haven may see a few bumps in the road and rumours of Joe Biden considering a run but strategists agree she remains Republicans top opponent
?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=0703c98e67095d244d5d8ef235cb78c5
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding on Friday in Clear Lake, Iowa. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty Images
Lauren Gambino in New York
@LGamGam
Sunday 16 August 2015 06.04 EDT
Not so long ago, Hillary Clinton supporters main concern seemed to be a fear that her coronation as the Democratic candidate for president would leave her unprepared for battle with the Republican nominee.
Hillary Clinton mocks email scandal as Democrat hopefuls meet the faithful
Read more
Now, by all metrics, the former secretary of state retains a historically strong lead in the race to secure her partys nomination. She is well ahead of the other declared candidates in terms of poll numbers, money and endorsements. But a succession of setbacks and the possibility of another mainstream rival joining the race has, to some degree, checked the presumptive-ness of the presumptive candidate.
This was a week that started out on a high note, with the rollout of Clintons college affordability plan, a policy prescription driven in large part by the partys progressives. But the spotlight quickly moved to escalating investigations into the private email account the candidate used while secretary of state, and a drop in polls as reports renewed speculation that vice-president Joe Biden may join the race.
Despite the preponderance of evidence that suggests the nomination is Clintons to lose, doubts are cropping up. ..............
William769
(55,147 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)that the Clintons, as buy one get one free, were elected twice with the most popular votes, something only Obama and the Clintons have done in the past 30 years. Both Bushes, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain, or Romney have not gotten the highest number of votes twice (Bush I, Bush II, and Gore did once tho), whether an absolute majority (>50%) or relative majority aka plurality (higher than anyone else but <50%).
The Clintons are a Democratic electoral juggernaut and we must always honour and vaunt them; and never take for granted what states are blue today but were consistently in the 24 years before the Clintons won 1992. I've listed those states before, and you can find them on electoral maps easily available.